This metric indicates the incumbent party (Dems) is likely to lose. Plausible: generic GOP always favored this yearhttp://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/unlocking-the-election/ …
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Replying to @mtracey
This isn't a series of 'metrics', it's a bunch of arbitrary judgment calls.
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Replying to @mtracey
Not really. He presents it as a model that when back tests has predictive value. It's not. It's just a bunch of arbitrary judgments
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Replying to @matthewstoller
He calls it a "parlor game." It's just a thought experiment.
2:50 PM - 15 Sep 2016
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