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mtracey's profile
Michael Tracey
Michael Tracey
Michael Tracey
Verified account
@mtracey

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Michael TraceyVerified account

@mtracey

Roving journalist, friend to all dogs mtracey@protonmail.com

NYC
patreon.com/mtracey
Joined March 2009

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    Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 14 Sep 2016
    • Report Tweet

    It's really curious that Nevada is this close. (Monmouth the best pollster of the cycle...)pic.twitter.com/6hdDeBYHYe

    2:28 PM - 14 Sep 2016
    • 35 Retweets
    • 60 Likes
    • Ninma🌹 Khalid Rosa onyxrt Deplorable John ❌ Sebastian Castro alicia Hyerez William Zelin 𝖙𝖆𝖓𝖌𝖑𝖊𝖘𝖔𝖒𝖊👑👰🏻📿
    10 replies 35 retweets 60 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 14 Sep 2016
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        NV is 27% Hispanic. Either the methodology is off, or Trump is not as catastrophically unpopular with Hispanics as conventionally assumed.

        20 replies 29 retweets 75 likes
      3. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 14 Sep 2016
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        In 2012, Obama outperformed polls by around 4% in NV + CO: likely due to Hispanic undersampling. So I think HRC still ahead in both states.

        11 replies 2 retweets 20 likes
      4. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 14 Sep 2016
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        In NV since July, according to Monmouth: Trump has gained +5% with nonwhite voters; HRC is down -2% among Dems; HRC is down -3% among women

        5 replies 36 retweets 45 likes
      5. 1 more reply
      1. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 14 Sep 2016
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        Polls skewed Dem in 2014.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 14 Sep 2016
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        General election electorate composition is so different, analogy doesn't really hold. And Hickenlooper (D) won in 2014.

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      2. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 14 Sep 2016
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        Yeah, I don't assume they'll repeat the same mistakes. There's just always an unforeseen skewing effect. NV is hard to poll.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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      2. Roger Taylor‏ @DumbKoans 14 Sep 2016
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        Replying to @mtracey

        Why is Monmouth the best?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 14 Sep 2016
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        Replying to @DumbKoans

        Most accurate during primaries.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. 1 more reply
      1. Emil Medellin‏ @medellinemil 14 Sep 2016
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        Or is it simply a distraction to keep us from acknowledging neither one is worth voting for.pic.twitter.com/vcVuhz8TdR

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. ImWatchingToo  🐾 👠‏ @ImWatchingToo 14 Sep 2016
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        Replying to @mtracey

        even after #HarryReid played games with the primary in that state

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Nameless Slave‏ @_liberationist 14 Sep 2016
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        Replying to @mtracey

        She doesn't need Nevada (or FL for that matter) to win. Areas like PA are more worrisome.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Matthew Battle‏ @librab103 14 Sep 2016
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        Just because you picked up the phone doesn't mean you will stand in line!

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Robert Barnes‏ @Barnes_Law 14 Sep 2016
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        Replying to @mtracey

        Not really. Minority turnout was reason for Obama lean. Very few gentry liberals. Very working class; many skipped 2012; like Trump

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Robert Barnes‏ @Barnes_Law 14 Sep 2016
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        Replying to @mtracey

        Also, older whites have been showing a massive GOP registration trend in Nevada since 2008. Visual: Clint Eastwood fans.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Meditate + phonebank for Bernie 2020 + The Squad 🌹‏ @MeditateBernie 14 Sep 2016
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        Replying to @mtracey

        Dems treated the Bernie Dems horribly in Nevada, consequences?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. BrandyRay‏ @brandy_ray_808 14 Sep 2016
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        Replying to @mtracey

        LANDSLIDE @realDonaldTrump

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