My item from 2 weeks ago on why the unusual "volatility" of the race (a combination of factors) likely favors Trump https://medium.com/@mtracey/volatility-and-why-trumps-odds-of-victory-are-higher-than-popularly-assumed-950acf00c3de#.4l6cnt54a …
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@TalkNerdyToMe72 I still expect ur hypothesis of 2 weeks ago re establishment reaction as Trump polls better to happen very soon
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I don't think Romney ever even led in one decent poll of Ohio the entire election.
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Latest polls are ALL within the margin of error and trending in Trump's favor:pic.twitter.com/9POY78hiNq
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silver is a hack & lost all credibility months ago. "1 in 3" is just saying "trump could win idk" in a way that sounds number-y
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Ipsos is a little funky tbh, shows Trump up 10 in NM (doubtful tbh)
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I would like to see another poll of Colorado, but Trump leading in NV means it's possible
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Well that confirms it then, hot damn.
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this race hasn't been anywhere near as volatile as you suggest http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton-vs-johnson …
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A more thorough comparison with past elections by
@SamWangPhD here http://election.princeton.edu/2016/08/21/sharpening-the-forecast/#more-17121 …
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Maybe because the democratic nominee wasn't subverted in 2008? Maybe that had something to do with it?
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Was Romney ever this high?
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