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mtracey's profile
Michael Tracey
Michael Tracey
Michael Tracey
Verified account
@mtracey

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Michael TraceyVerified account

@mtracey

Roving journalist, friend to all dogs mtracey@protonmail.com

NYC
patreon.com/mtracey
Joined March 2009

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    Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 31 Aug 2016
    • Report Tweet

    A quick thought on "volatility" and why I believe Trump's odds of winning are higher than popularly assumedhttps://medium.com/@mtracey/volatility-and-why-trumps-odds-of-victory-are-higher-than-popularly-assumed-950acf00c3de#.klunpnnig …

    6:03 AM - 31 Aug 2016
    • 62 Retweets
    • 86 Likes
    • Admiral General Tom Burckhalter Mike Stephen Maren Shawesh ⏳towhee⏳#Tulsi2020 #Bernie2020 #Unity4J ⏳ Zac JohnW #Bernie2020🏳️‍🌈🌽🍐 🌹 Yordanos
    15 replies 62 retweets 86 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 31 Aug 2016
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        This one goes out to @HeerJeet and @LPDonovan

        1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
      3. Liam Donovan‏Verified account @LPDonovan 31 Aug 2016
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey @HeerJeet

        so is your theory that the polls will close as undecided/others come home, or just that there's a systemic blind spot?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. 1 more reply
      1. New conversation
      2. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 31 Aug 2016
        • Report Tweet

        I can't pretend that I understand exactly what Taleb is saying here

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. End of conversation
      1. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 31 Aug 2016
        • Report Tweet

        I'm not well-versed enough in probability/statistics to weigh in on whether what he's saying has credence

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Will Jordan‏Verified account @williamjordann 31 Aug 2016
        • Report Tweet

        btw did the forecast ever show trump up? Believe it was the nowcast, which is just polls

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 31 Aug 2016
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @williamjordann @PhillipsPasha @narenbalaji

        yeah it was the nowcast

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Justin Raimondo‏ @JustinRaimondo 31 Aug 2016
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        Another factor: Voters who don't want to say they're voting for Trump but will do so. 2-3%

        4 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
      3. Zac‏ @Mistertbones 31 Aug 2016
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @JustinRaimondo @mtracey

        Michael is a smart guy. Thinks for himself.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. 2 more replies
      1. V.C. Bestor‏ @VCBestor 31 Aug 2016
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        Passion that Bernie ignited still glows in #BernersFortRump: tRump is the lesser evil & maybe our only tool against #ElectionFraud

        0 replies 1 retweet 1 like
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      1. Pale Blue Eyes‏ @UnkemptAussie 31 Aug 2016
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        Replying to @mtracey

        "overall turnout is likely to be sapped among that group" and others. Low low turnout might be a factor.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Mike Flugennock‏ @flugennock 31 Aug 2016
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        Replying to @mtracey

        I can only hope. The Clintons have had a good, sound ass-paddling coming to them for nigh on 25 years.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Élisée Reclus‏ @Colectivisthipo 31 Aug 2016
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        Replying to @mtracey

        I've actually thought this myself. He prob won't win but will do better than expected. It doesn't feel as neat & tidy as it appears

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. New conversation
      2. Indep. Workers Party‏ @IWPCHI 31 Aug 2016
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        Presuming, of course, that The Donald doesn't come to harm while visiting that nation he so grievously and gratuitously insulted.

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. 2 more replies
      1. Coños de la Chingada‏ @whatstherukkus 31 Aug 2016
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        Replying to @mtracey

        Agreed on many points. Plus she is running just like remain Tories: we are inevitable. But is likely rigged as hell, so...

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Admiral General‏ @Ahurastan 31 Aug 2016
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        Replying to @mtracey

        @NationalismRise @Medium now u get it: Volatile vs slow burn past a Hillary on life support Who had. Who always had the momentum?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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