Reputable tracking polls -- USC/LAT, UPI -- show Trump/HRC roughly tied, just as convention "bounces" tapering. "Collapse" talk premature.
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Brexit was ahead in the polls until a week or so before voting day. Brexit =\= Trump.
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I never claimed Brexit "equals" Trump
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first Romney/Obama debate showed they can at least temporarily upend the equilibrium of the race, right or wrong.
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that's interesting because Trump did not outperform polls in primaries
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also look at betting markets https://electionbettingodds.com/week.html fwiw HRC has been climbing since convention.
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