USC/LA Times poll consistently shows Trump with an outlier-ish lead https://election.usc.edu/ For what it's worth, they nailed 2012 pop vote
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Replying to @mtracey
Methodology of the poll is a little unorthodox (no phone component) but that may be sound practice this year. Worth bearing in mind.
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Replying to @mtracey
phone issue wouldn't be my chief complaint. Not a random sample. Closed group. So good for trends, but not really apples to apples.
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Replying to @LPDonovan
I do think they characterize it as a "random" sampling but would have to double check
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Replying to @mtracey
it's a panel. 3k ppl. They survey 400 of them a night. Just very different.pic.twitter.com/T02KTrAVf3
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Replying to @LPDonovan
Yeah I get that they're unconventional. But these are credible people.
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Replying to @mtracey @LPDonovan
I believe non-conventional polls always showed Brexit performing better than conventional polls. Food for thought.
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Replying to @mtracey
maybe so. It's double edged sword. If you nailed the panel sample you're in good shape. If not? Once an outlier, always an outlier.
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They have the advantage of avoiding the "clustering" effect that Silver and others have long complained about.
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Replying to @mtracey
it's a closed system. There's something to that. I just wouldn't evaluate it in a vacuum personally
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