USC/LA Times poll consistently shows Trump with an outlier-ish lead https://election.usc.edu/ For what it's worth, they nailed 2012 pop vote
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Replying to @mtracey
Methodology of the poll is a little unorthodox (no phone component) but that may be sound practice this year. Worth bearing in mind.
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Replying to @mtracey
Takeaway from this poll. Trump not winning whites at Romney 2012 numbers. But driving *up* turnout among Trump-supporting white demos.
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Replying to @mtracey
So, Trump could get a lesser percentage of white voters than Romney and still win, by increasing turnout among certain white demographics.
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Replying to @mtracey
NYT hinted at this phenomenon potentially being extant in the electorate awhile back. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/10/upshot/there-are-more-white-voters-than-people-think-thats-good-news-for-trump.html …
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Replying to @mtracey
Maybe the most mind-boggling finding: Trump is roughly tied or *leading* HRC among voters aged 18-35pic.twitter.com/MatbCZJPNo
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Replying to @mtracey
@dorseyshaw Because it's wrong. Massive outlier from polling average. Not worth over-analyzing.1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @mattmfm @dorseyshaw
I've repeatedly noted that this poll uses unorthodox methodology. But you're in no position to declare it "wrong."
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Replying to @mtracey @dorseyshaw
I mean, I'm a pollster -- so I'd say I have a bit of knowledge on the subject.
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No amount of knowledge about the subject endows you with the ability to declare this "wrong."
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guys, it was just getting good and then fizzled. Oh well
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End of conversation
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