USC/LA Times poll consistently shows Trump with an outlier-ish lead https://election.usc.edu/ For what it's worth, they nailed 2012 pop vote
-
-
Takeaway from this poll. Trump not winning whites at Romney 2012 numbers. But driving *up* turnout among Trump-supporting white demos.
-
So, Trump could get a lesser percentage of white voters than Romney and still win, by increasing turnout among certain white demographics.
-
NYT hinted at this phenomenon potentially being extant in the electorate awhile back. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/10/upshot/there-are-more-white-voters-than-people-think-thats-good-news-for-trump.html …
-
Maybe the most mind-boggling finding: Trump is roughly tied or *leading* HRC among voters aged 18-35pic.twitter.com/MatbCZJPNo
-
The poll also shows Trump outperforming Romney among Hispanic voters by 6%. That does seem counter-intuitive. But not totally infeasible.
-
Romney's performance in 2012 among Hispanic voters was an all-time low for GOP. It could be ticking up along with overall population trends.
-
Needless to say, every Hispanic voter isn't immersed in the 24-hour outrage news cycle. And, also needless to say, many are conservatives.
- 2 more replies
New conversation -
-
-
phone issue wouldn't be my chief complaint. Not a random sample. Closed group. So good for trends, but not really apples to apples.
-
I do think they characterize it as a "random" sampling but would have to double check
- 6 more replies
New conversation -
-
-
Did they use the same methodology in 2012 when they "nailed" the popular vote?
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.