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mtracey's profile
Michael Tracey
Michael Tracey
Michael Tracey
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@mtracey

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Michael TraceyVerified account

@mtracey

Roving journalist, friend to all dogs mtracey@protonmail.com

NYC
patreon.com/mtracey
Joined March 2009

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    Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 1 Aug 2016
    • Report Tweet

    USC/LA Times poll consistently shows Trump with an outlier-ish lead https://election.usc.edu/  For what it's worth, they nailed 2012 pop vote

    2:36 PM - 1 Aug 2016
    • 109 Retweets
    • 120 Likes
    • Conservative APRN DrZoeGrey American Voter Aberrant Harpooner hume@jshume Rodger Varley Kurt Maxwell🇺🇸🏁 Tony Pellin Chrissy #MAGA ! #KAG2020!🇺🇸
    16 replies 109 retweets 120 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 1 Aug 2016
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        Methodology of the poll is a little unorthodox (no phone component) but that may be sound practice this year. Worth bearing in mind.

        5 replies 4 retweets 17 likes
      3. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 1 Aug 2016
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        Takeaway from this poll. Trump not winning whites at Romney 2012 numbers. But driving *up* turnout among Trump-supporting white demos.

        3 replies 11 retweets 12 likes
      4. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 1 Aug 2016
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        Replying to @mtracey

        So, Trump could get a lesser percentage of white voters than Romney and still win, by increasing turnout among certain white demographics.

        4 replies 16 retweets 17 likes
      5. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 1 Aug 2016
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        Replying to @mtracey

        NYT hinted at this phenomenon potentially being extant in the electorate awhile back. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/10/upshot/there-are-more-white-voters-than-people-think-thats-good-news-for-trump.html …

        1 reply 7 retweets 13 likes
      6. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 1 Aug 2016
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        Replying to @mtracey

        Maybe the most mind-boggling finding: Trump is roughly tied or *leading* HRC among voters aged 18-35pic.twitter.com/MatbCZJPNo

        17 replies 60 retweets 51 likes
      7. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 1 Aug 2016
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        Replying to @mtracey

        The poll also shows Trump outperforming Romney among Hispanic voters by 6%. That does seem counter-intuitive. But not totally infeasible.

        5 replies 8 retweets 14 likes
      8. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 1 Aug 2016
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        Replying to @mtracey

        Romney's performance in 2012 among Hispanic voters was an all-time low for GOP. It could be ticking up along with overall population trends.

        2 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
      9. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 1 Aug 2016
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        Replying to @mtracey

        Needless to say, every Hispanic voter isn't immersed in the 24-hour outrage news cycle. And, also needless to say, many are conservatives.

        4 replies 2 retweets 12 likes
      10. 2 more replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 1 Aug 2016
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        Replying to @Nebsterrr

        That does seem a bit high. But only 2% less than Romney.

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 1 Aug 2016
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        Replying to @mtracey @Nebsterrr

        Scratch that, my error. This does have Trump significantly outperforming Romney.

        0 replies 1 retweet 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 1 Aug 2016
        • Report Tweet

        I specifically noted in a subsequent tweet that they are using unorthodox methodology.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 1 Aug 2016
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        Replying to @maryjanebern @aruntoronto

        Same with many white evangelicals.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 1 Aug 2016
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        Replying to @SMGVII

        Because it could be picking up something that others have missed.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. This Tweet is unavailable.
      1. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 1 Aug 2016
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        Replying to @SMGVII

        Agreed.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. David Grossman‏ @davidgross_man 1 Aug 2016
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        nailing a single election's meaningless metric doesn't sound like its worth very much

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 1 Aug 2016
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @davidgross_man

        It's not a "meaningless metric" -- popular vote has tracked with winner of electoral college in all but one modern election

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. 6 more replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Richard Sharpe‏ @Sharpe222 1 Aug 2016
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        @BuzzFeedAndrew this isn't a poll -it's a panel that they reinterview. Very flawed theory

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 1 Aug 2016
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @Sharpe222 @BuzzFeedAndrew

        I specifically noted in a subsequent tweet that the methodology is unorthodox. See thread for more.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. asdfasdf‏ @LongLivePepe 1 Aug 2016
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        Michael what do you make of the new CNN poll? 83-12 Hillary non-White vote seems almost impossible

        6 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 1 Aug 2016
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        Replying to @LongLivePepe

        At the very least it shows a lot of fluctuation/volatility which is an anomaly in recent US elections

        0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
      4. End of conversation

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