Methodology of the poll is a little unorthodox (no phone component) but that may be sound practice this year. Worth bearing in mind.
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Takeaway from this poll. Trump not winning whites at Romney 2012 numbers. But driving *up* turnout among Trump-supporting white demos.
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So, Trump could get a lesser percentage of white voters than Romney and still win, by increasing turnout among certain white demographics.
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NYT hinted at this phenomenon potentially being extant in the electorate awhile back. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/10/upshot/there-are-more-white-voters-than-people-think-thats-good-news-for-trump.html …
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Maybe the most mind-boggling finding: Trump is roughly tied or *leading* HRC among voters aged 18-35pic.twitter.com/MatbCZJPNo
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The poll also shows Trump outperforming Romney among Hispanic voters by 6%. That does seem counter-intuitive. But not totally infeasible.
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Romney's performance in 2012 among Hispanic voters was an all-time low for GOP. It could be ticking up along with overall population trends.
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Needless to say, every Hispanic voter isn't immersed in the 24-hour outrage news cycle. And, also needless to say, many are conservatives.
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That does seem a bit high. But only 2% less than Romney.
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Scratch that, my error. This does have Trump significantly outperforming Romney.
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I specifically noted in a subsequent tweet that they are using unorthodox methodology.
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Same with many white evangelicals.
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Because it could be picking up something that others have missed.
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nailing a single election's meaningless metric doesn't sound like its worth very much
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It's not a "meaningless metric" -- popular vote has tracked with winner of electoral college in all but one modern election
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@BuzzFeedAndrew this isn't a poll -it's a panel that they reinterview. Very flawed theory -
I specifically noted in a subsequent tweet that the methodology is unorthodox. See thread for more.
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Michael what do you make of the new CNN poll? 83-12 Hillary non-White vote seems almost impossible
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At the very least it shows a lot of fluctuation/volatility which is an anomaly in recent US elections
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