Michael Tracey
Methodology of the poll is a little unorthodox (no phone component) but that may be sound practice this year. Worth bearing in mind.
USC/LA Times poll consistently shows Trump with an outlier-ish lead https://election.usc.edu/ For what it's worth, they nailed 2012 pop vote
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Takeaway from this poll. Trump not winning whites at Romney 2012 numbers. But driving *up* turnout among Trump-supporting white demos.
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So, Trump could get a lesser percentage of white voters than Romney and still win, by increasing turnout among certain white demographics.
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NYT hinted at this phenomenon potentially being extant in the electorate awhile back.http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/10/upshot/there-are-more-white-voters-than-people-think-thats-good-news-for-trump.html …
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Maybe the most mind-boggling finding: Trump is roughly tied or *leading* HRC among voters aged 18-35pic.twitter.com/MatbCZJPNo
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The poll also shows Trump outperforming Romney among Hispanic voters by 6%. That does seem counter-intuitive. But not totally infeasible.
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Romney's performance in 2012 among Hispanic voters was an all-time low for GOP. It could be ticking up along with overall population trends.
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Needless to say, every Hispanic voter isn't immersed in the 24-hour outrage news cycle. And, also needless to say, many are conservatives.
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@mtracey nailing a single election's meaningless metric doesn't sound like its worth very much -
@davidgross_man It's not a "meaningless metric" -- popular vote has tracked with winner of electoral college in all but one modern election -
@mtracey the popular vote doesn't decide anything. it has no quantifiable purpose or value. it plays no role in who becomes president -
@davidgross_man It's a metric for gauging who is on course to win the election. -
@mtracey not on the presidential level. only the electoral college matters. its the only thing that decides who wins the election. -
@davidgross_man So then every polling firm should quit conducting national popular vote polls? -
@mtracey yes! on presidential level, they're clickbait that serve no purpose. should devote money to more state polls -
@mtracey i'd rather have ten times the polling of bucks county in PA than some vague tea leaf reading of "the national mood"
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@mtracey Michael what do you make of the new CNN poll? 83-12 Hillary non-White vote seems almost impossible - View other replies
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@tweettweereffer At the very least it shows a lot of fluctuation/volatility which is an anomaly in recent US elections
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@mtracey@BuzzFeedAndrew this isn't a poll -it's a panel that they reinterview. Very flawed theory -
@Sharpe222@BuzzFeedAndrew I specifically noted in a subsequent tweet that the methodology is unorthodox. See thread for more.
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David Grossman
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Richard Sharpe
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