Single biggest, if counterintuitive, problem for GOP right now- it's too successful. Too big of footprint. Too much to lose.
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Replying to @LPDonovan
If this were 2008 (or '08 division of power), it would be much easier for R leaders and electeds to reject or run away from Trump/Trumpism.
1 reply 2 retweets 11 likes -
Replying to @LPDonovan
It's hard to throw away a Senate majority out of principle. It's painful to put the House in play. Much easier to ride out the next 100 days
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Replying to @LPDonovan
And with all eyes on 2020, the decisions not based on congressional fortifications are mindful of the inevitable dolchstoss recriminations.
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Replying to @LPDonovan
Throw in existential and enduring SCOTUS implications and you get the current paralysis. Can't reject him entirely, but can't say his name.
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Replying to @LPDonovan
For better or worse, permission structure to run against Trump is tied to polls. If/when his
#s fall, suddenly people find their courage.7 replies 43 retweets 62 likes -
Replying to @LPDonovan
Right on cue, HRC seems to be back out to ~5pt lead as she was pre-Comey. If that continues into fall, anti-Trump branch looks sturdier.
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Replying to @LPDonovan
But that lead is also a transitory convention-inflected "bounce." My guess: will taper some by next week.
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Replying to @mtracey @LPDonovan
what this poll? This one Shows 9?pic.twitter.com/cZB8gF8WuQ
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Replying to @ErinRehman @mtracey
little bouncy- 5 seems safe for now. Watch the avgz
2 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
As I just tweeted, if +4-5 is HRC's peak "bounce," she's not in safe territory at all.
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