Trump's chance of winning as of today is 51.6% per @FiveThirtyEight. Romney's highest chance of winning at any point in 2012 campaign: 41.0%
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Replying to @mtracey
not exactly. That's his chance if election were held today. That forecast didn't exist in 2012. But still, yeah, it's real close.
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Replying to @jodyavirgan
538 did not have a proprietary model-based "if the election were held today" forecast in 2012?
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Replying to @mtracey @jodyavirgan
we did: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/fivethirtyeights-2012-forecast/ … but the now-cast is NOT a forecast for Nov. 8.
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What was Romney's high in the now-cast?
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I think 44%?
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Will strive to be more precise next time -- overall point still stands, though.
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Was nothing personal, I just worry lots of people are misunderstanding the now-cast.
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right
11:45 AM - 29 Jul 2016
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