Michael TraceyVerified account

@mtracey not exactly. That's his chance if election were held today. That forecast didn't exist in 2012. But still, yeah, it's real close.

@jodyavirgan 538 did not have a proprietary model-based "if the election were held today" forecast in 2012?

@mtracey @jodyavirgan we did: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/fivethirtyeights-2012-forecast/ … but the now-cast is NOT a forecast for Nov. 8.

@micahcohen @mtracey @jodyavirgan What was Romney's high in the now-cast?

@skepticalsports @mtracey @jodyavirgan I think 44%?

@micahcohen @skepticalsports @jodyavirgan Will strive to be more precise next time -- overall point still stands, though.

@mtracey @skepticalsports @jodyavirgan Was nothing personal, I just worry lots of people are misunderstanding the now-cast.

@mtracey @FiveThirtyEight And this is without the support of Blacks, Hispanics, Muslims, the college educated AND women!!!!

@mutex7 @mtracey @FiveThirtyEight he'll get more minority vote than McCain and Romney

@WatsonDanielLLC @mtracey @FiveThirtyEight Yes, but try to get 538 and the #Hillary supporting media to acknowledge that!

@mutex7 @mtracey @FiveThirtyEight doesn't fit their narrative

@mtracey @TheOneSoleShoe @FiveThirtyEight Showing once again how any competent Republican would've had a great chance of winning. But Trump.

@PirateSpitter @mtracey @TheOneSoleShoe @FiveThirtyEight I don't think you get it. Americans are turned off by evangelicals

@MarkBrining @mtracey @TheOneSoleShoe @FiveThirtyEight And George Bush was an "evangelical" and he won twice. So you're likely wrong.

@PirateSpitter @mtracey @TheOneSoleShoe Bush is a Christian but was smart enough to temper pro life platform. Cruz couldn't figure that out.