According to 538, as of today odds of a Trump win stand at 41.3% -- higher than the odds of a Romney win *at any point* in the 2012 campaign
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Point is "chance Trump wins" meaningless. See https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~stark/Preprints/611.pdf … re earthquake probability
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it's a model. Even defining "probability a given candidate wins" is seriously troubled.
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