@JayCostTWS But (one) big difference: Trump has a much bigger lead in SC than he had in IA--can drop 6% and still win.
@yeselson @JayCostTWS Also, Trump's SC lead has been entrenched over months, whereas in IA he was purported to "surge" in last few weeks.
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@mtracey@JayCostTWS Yeah. I think he wins pretty comfortably. Maybe not by as much as he would have a week ago, but 10+. -
@yeselson@JayCostTWS Lesson of NH suggests that leads built over months are less susceptible to late volatility than polling may indicate. - 1 more reply
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