It's fine to put forward a case for a particular candidate, but analytical clarity demands that be separate from an empirical assessment.
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Rise of data-journalism has been somewhat of a corrective force with this, but the problem persists, even among data-journos themselves.
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@mtracey they always get IA Repub caucuses wrong b/c the voter base = intense Midwestern Evangelical or Catholics who have own priorities. -
@bartona104 Yep. Cruz had built up a sturdy lead over months/years that was unamenable to polling fluctuations. - 3 more replies
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@mtracey agree w/ all, but n.b.: 64% of the GOP Iowa electorate was evangelicals. the fact trump got 25% (and Paul 21% in 2012) is nuts. -
@klejdys It's not so nuts if you dump the notion that evangelicals are any kind of monolith - 1 more reply
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