I think three things will contribute to Brown's defeat: Obama being on the ballot; his hard negative turn; no conservative enthusiasm.
@jimantle He's never run for national office in a general election though. Voters often use a different calculus for state contests.
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@mtracey No question. Even so he's likely to get 47-48 percent of the vote, 3-4 points shy of a majority. -
@jimantle Brown has run a poor campaign, but even so, he was heavily favored to lose this race the minute he beat Coakley. - 6 more replies
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@mtracey Brown is politically closer to most MA independents than Warren, but these same voters may be more comfortable with Dem majorities. -
@jimantle I'm not so sure about the former claim. Do you have data? - 2 more replies
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