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mtracey's profile
Michael Tracey
Michael Tracey
Michael Tracey
Verified account
@mtracey

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Michael TraceyVerified account

@mtracey

Roving journalist, friend to all dogs mtracey@protonmail.com

NYC
patreon.com/mtracey
Joined March 2009

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    1. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey Aug 20
      • Report Tweet

      80% of the comments I see about Biden's lead are declarations that the commenter does not believe the polls. Biden leads in polls with vastly different sample sizes (from 400 to 17,000) and methodologies. Instead of becoming a statistical nihilist, understand why he's leading!

      69 replies 49 retweets 298 likes
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      Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey Aug 20
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      The 2016 general election national polls were basically correct. (In fact, there was less error than in the 2012 election). There was error in the way the polls were portrayed in the media, and there was some significant error in state polls. Don't stick your heads in the sand!

      11:13 AM - 20 Aug 2019
      • 33 Retweets
      • 201 Likes
      • Matt P. 👻𝒎𝒊𝒍𝒍𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒂𝒊𝒓𝒆 𝒑𝒖𝒏𝒅𝒊𝒕𝒔👻 Mikey D Justin L. Tim J Penner ☣🇨🇦☣ peter🌹 Loretta Dead🌹⚖ Alex Wu Obe
      41 replies 33 retweets 201 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Rasmussen Reports‏Verified account @Rasmussen_Poll Aug 20
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @mtracey

          Pardon us: Only 3 2016 national pollsters told voters Trump had any chance nationally at all & showed the lead changing frequently. Most 2016 polls were grossly misleading about Trump's real chances. Look back in this Popular Vote based summary & below. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html …pic.twitter.com/P5ymYrFlbD

          1 reply 1 retweet 10 likes
        3. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey Aug 20
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          Replying to @Rasmussen_Poll

          1.2% aggregate polling error is not that bad. I agree that the media coverage of Trump's chances was grossly misleading, but the final national polling error was really not bad.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. 5 more replies
        1. Aintropy‏ @Aintropy Aug 20
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          Replying to @mtracey

          A lot of people can’t fathom that some people want a right wing Dem that would do nothing.

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        1. J. Bradford DeLucy‏ @01wise Aug 20
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Polling models make assumptions based on who has historically voted and there are good reasons to believe those assumptions underestimate Bernie’s eventual performance.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. NuQum.com‏ @NuQum4Real Aug 20
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Exactly right. The 2016 generally nailed the popular vote. They failed to nail the state-by-state races.

          3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. nadinecarroll‏ @nadinecarroll Aug 20
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          Replying to @NuQum4Real @mtracey

          Rather a big oops, as it turned out.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. nadinecarroll‏ @nadinecarroll Aug 20
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @mtracey

          But is Biden’s lead a real show of support for Biden, or discontent with the other choices?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. StratAnalytica‏ @StratAnalytica Aug 20
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Also, remember that the people being polled are not paying close attention at this point — unlike pundits who see the real Joe. They’re are thinking of 8-years-ago Joe, and are answering based on name recognition...

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Anne Pickering‏ @CatchlightAnne Aug 20
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          Replying to @mtracey

          General is completely different from 2016 DNC shenanigans via election rigging and voter suppression.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Bronus Swagner‏ @BronusSwagner Aug 20
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          Replying to @mtracey

          He has a smaller lead than Hillary did at this point in 2007

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. this time is different?‏ @BOBBYbinks Aug 20
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          Replying to @mtracey

          I have not heard this interpretation

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. sheila chambers‏ @sheilachambers2 Aug 20
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          Replying to @mtracey

          The "elections" are RIGGED!

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. ESPN is CNN‏ @Dannymkfsi Aug 20
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Michigan and Wisconsin.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. SM-SAM  🌐  💙‏ @sammad381 Aug 20
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          Replying to @mtracey

          WOW polls can be legitimate and there is science behind statistics that's not in question, the point is that all these 'acceptable' polls are being RIGGED ALL OF THEM they're a tool like #FakeNews talking heads THEY HAVE THE SAME AGENDA to stop anyone who isn't part of #deepstate

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        1. Franklin Rapport‏ @horrdorr Aug 20
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Polls that are used for a narrative will remain non transparent about who's paying, the sample size, the refusals to participate, the questions and their order. The majority of the will of the people can be starkly illustrated with two memes. They voted loudly.pic.twitter.com/7f8dvMvbU3

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Pablo‏ @PJGJ03 Aug 20
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Midwest polls were off by as much as 10+ points..

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. Send Her Back‏ @allidoisgetpaid Aug 20
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          Replying to @mtracey

          They were "basically correct" but only immediately prior to the election. In the months prior there were polls showing Hillary up 17 pts etc. Doesn't mean that Biden isn't leading, although I would imagine that certain candidates like Gabbard are deliberately undersampled.

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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