80% of the comments I see about Biden's lead are declarations that the commenter does not believe the polls. Biden leads in polls with vastly different sample sizes (from 400 to 17,000) and methodologies. Instead of becoming a statistical nihilist, understand why he's leading!
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Pardon us: Only 3 2016 national pollsters told voters Trump had any chance nationally at all & showed the lead changing frequently. Most 2016 polls were grossly misleading about Trump's real chances. Look back in this Popular Vote based summary & below. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html …pic.twitter.com/P5ymYrFlbD
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1.2% aggregate polling error is not that bad. I agree that the media coverage of Trump's chances was grossly misleading, but the final national polling error was really not bad.
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A lot of people can’t fathom that some people want a right wing Dem that would do nothing.
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Polling models make assumptions based on who has historically voted and there are good reasons to believe those assumptions underestimate Bernie’s eventual performance.
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Exactly right. The 2016 generally nailed the popular vote. They failed to nail the state-by-state races.
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Rather a big oops, as it turned out.
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But is Biden’s lead a real show of support for Biden, or discontent with the other choices?
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Also, remember that the people being polled are not paying close attention at this point — unlike pundits who see the real Joe. They’re are thinking of 8-years-ago Joe, and are answering based on name recognition...
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General is completely different from 2016 DNC shenanigans via election rigging and voter suppression.
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He has a smaller lead than Hillary did at this point in 2007
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I have not heard this interpretation
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The "elections" are RIGGED!
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Michigan and Wisconsin.
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WOW polls can be legitimate and there is science behind statistics that's not in question, the point is that all these 'acceptable' polls are being RIGGED ALL OF THEM they're a tool like
#FakeNews talking heads THEY HAVE THE SAME AGENDA to stop anyone who isn't part of#deepstateThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Polls that are used for a narrative will remain non transparent about who's paying, the sample size, the refusals to participate, the questions and their order. The majority of the will of the people can be starkly illustrated with two memes. They voted loudly.pic.twitter.com/7f8dvMvbU3
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Midwest polls were off by as much as 10+ points..
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They were "basically correct" but only immediately prior to the election. In the months prior there were polls showing Hillary up 17 pts etc. Doesn't mean that Biden isn't leading, although I would imagine that certain candidates like Gabbard are deliberately undersampled.
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