The 2016 general election national polls were basically correct. (In fact, there was less error than in the 2012 election). There was error in the way the polls were portrayed in the media, and there was some significant error in state polls. Don't stick your heads in the sand!
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I understand why... Ppl that say ‘Biden’ as a first choice are also the types of ppl that answer calls from random numbers in the first place
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Poor Biden supporters, you know half the time these pollsters get one on the phone they say, "Hi grandpa, its me, i got a new bank account can you send me some money?"
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Most of the polls I've seen had a sample that is at least 50% landlines. The main problem with that is the only demo that is reliably reachable on landlines is the elderly upper middle class-wealthy demo and millenials are projected to be at least 1/3rd of the primary electorate.
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The only reason he's leading is because his competition is divided between 20 other candidates. As soon as they rally around one or two alternatives to Biden, he's toast. His numbers are going in the wrong direction. The more he campaigns the worse his poll numbers will get.
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If Steyer is gaining in the early primary states, he is not taking votes away from Warren or Sanders. We will see what happens when the voting starts. My guess is that Steyer hurts Biden a good bit. Losing absolute front runner status will hurt even more.
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All the objections people are making about methodology (they’re oversampling landlines! They don’t get that non-voters will happen!) are ones pollsters are well aware of. The numbers are accurate, this is all just “unskewing” talk. Tracey is correct.
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Doesn't mean he'll (necessarily) keep his lead, though.
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It's not that the polls are wrong, it's that Biden's support is loose and will fall off sooner or later
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it's just manufactured competition for Harris the media is memeing him as "the guy who constantly gaffes" now that they got his money all that's left is for Joe to play his role and be the Old White Guy Whose Time Is Now Up & make a show of passing the mantle to Harris in 2020
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I agree. What you can take away is Biden leads somewhere around 11%-14%: that’s down significantly. Biden’s as weak a frontrunner as u could hope for. Being a Berner I’m heartened that Bernie this past month has sharpened message $ despite MSM bias agiant him is gaining
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If Biden truly is leading, I have zero hope for humanity... There is no way to change the current system... We must build a new one...
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Biden is "leading" because the "elections" are RIGGED! I don't believe Biden is "leading" in the "polls" either. WHO are they asking? Not ME! Would they DARE have a online poll?
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I agree...yet, I wonder what the political world will look like after Barr completes the declassification process currently underway. Only time will tell.
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I believe polls he’s leading, I just don’t believe the % is an accurate depiction of intent. It is a % of known at present time. I don’t know if there’s a polling system today that can get an honest depiction of interest unless it did equal parts land line, internet, straw poll
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In statistics, there is a fundamental concept called the central limit theorem. Part of it is that samples must be random to be representative. Samples won't be random if they are tailored to an outcome, such as "show Biden on top, " no matter the sample size to margin of error
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I agree.
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Name recognition, much?
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I don’t think people should even Poll look what happened in 2016 . I think Trump will win his economy alone is huge compared to O’s . Plus people are being very secretive about who they are voting for
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