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mtracey's profile
Michael Tracey
Michael Tracey
Michael Tracey
Verified account
@mtracey

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Michael TraceyVerified account

@mtracey

Roving journalist, friend to all dogs mtracey@protonmail.com

NYC
patreon.com/mtracey
Joined March 2009

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    Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey Aug 20
    • Report Tweet

    80% of the comments I see about Biden's lead are declarations that the commenter does not believe the polls. Biden leads in polls with vastly different sample sizes (from 400 to 17,000) and methodologies. Instead of becoming a statistical nihilist, understand why he's leading!

    11:07 AM - 20 Aug 2019
    • 49 Retweets
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    69 replies 49 retweets 298 likes
      1. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey Aug 20
        • Report Tweet

        The 2016 general election national polls were basically correct. (In fact, there was less error than in the 2012 election). There was error in the way the polls were portrayed in the media, and there was some significant error in state polls. Don't stick your heads in the sand!

        41 replies 33 retweets 201 likes
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      2. 21st Century FDR‏ @21stCenturyFDR Aug 20
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        I understand why... Ppl that say ‘Biden’ as a first choice are also the types of ppl that answer calls from random numbers in the first place

        2 replies 0 retweets 30 likes
      3. Kyle Lawrence‏ @KyleLaw08226922 Aug 20
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @21stCenturyFDR @mtracey

        Poor Biden supporters, you know half the time these pollsters get one on the phone they say, "Hi grandpa, its me, i got a new bank account can you send me some money?"

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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      1. Hellsite Navigator 🦉 💀 🕊️‏ @ExtrinsicNotion Aug 20
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        Most of the polls I've seen had a sample that is at least 50% landlines. The main problem with that is the only demo that is reliably reachable on landlines is the elderly upper middle class-wealthy demo and millenials are projected to be at least 1/3rd of the primary electorate.

        0 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
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      2. Brandon Adamson‏ @brandonadamson Aug 20
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        The only reason he's leading is because his competition is divided between 20 other candidates. As soon as they rally around one or two alternatives to Biden, he's toast. His numbers are going in the wrong direction. The more he campaigns the worse his poll numbers will get.

        1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
      3. gary podgorski‏ @podgorski_gary Aug 20
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @brandonadamson @mtracey

        If Steyer is gaining in the early primary states, he is not taking votes away from Warren or Sanders. We will see what happens when the voting starts. My guess is that Steyer hurts Biden a good bit. Losing absolute front runner status will hurt even more.

        0 replies 1 retweet 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
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      2. theBelgian‏ @jericho71 Aug 21
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        All the objections people are making about methodology (they’re oversampling landlines! They don’t get that non-voters will happen!) are ones pollsters are well aware of. The numbers are accurate, this is all just “unskewing” talk. Tracey is correct.

        2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. Rahul Keshap‏ @rkeshap Aug 21
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @jericho71 @mtracey

        Doesn't mean he'll (necessarily) keep his lead, though.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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      1.  🧢 Michael J Jackson‏ @Michael31415492 Aug 20
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        It's not that the polls are wrong, it's that Biden's support is loose and will fall off sooner or later

        0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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      1. rezich‏ @rezich Aug 20
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        it's just manufactured competition for Harris the media is memeing him as "the guy who constantly gaffes" now that they got his money all that's left is for Joe to play his role and be the Old White Guy Whose Time Is Now Up & make a show of passing the mantle to Harris in 2020

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      1. Oblomov's Dream‏ @languissant Aug 20
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        I agree. What you can take away is Biden leads somewhere around 11%-14%: that’s down significantly. Biden’s as weak a frontrunner as u could hope for. Being a Berner I’m heartened that Bernie this past month has sharpened message $ despite MSM bias agiant him is gaining

        0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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      1. BitCoin Bernie‏ @btcBernie Aug 20
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        If Biden truly is leading, I have zero hope for humanity... There is no way to change the current system... We must build a new one... #Bitcoin

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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      1. sheila chambers‏ @sheilachambers2 Aug 20
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        Biden is "leading" because the "elections" are RIGGED! I don't believe Biden is "leading" in the "polls" either. WHO are they asking? Not ME! Would they DARE have a online poll?

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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      1. Dan Mellis‏ @MtgGuyDan Aug 20
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        I agree...yet, I wonder what the political world will look like after Barr completes the declassification process currently underway. Only time will tell.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. spooky sea|zo|n  🎃‏ @aintthatZo Aug 20
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        Replying to @mtracey

        Well then, why is he leading?pic.twitter.com/h9hbyyKfha

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Donnie Harpell 🌺‏ @Dongocalrissian Aug 20
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        I believe polls he’s leading, I just don’t believe the % is an accurate depiction of intent. It is a % of known at present time. I don’t know if there’s a polling system today that can get an honest depiction of interest unless it did equal parts land line, internet, straw poll

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Brian "Cleaner" Murphy‏ @Brian_T_Murphy Aug 20
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        In statistics, there is a fundamental concept called the central limit theorem. Part of it is that samples must be random to be representative. Samples won't be random if they are tailored to an outcome, such as "show Biden on top, " no matter the sample size to margin of error

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      1. The Nihilist‏ @gaming_nihilist Aug 20
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        Replying to @mtracey

        I agree.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Jake A Snider  🧢‏ @JakeASnider1 Aug 20
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        Replying to @mtracey

        Name recognition, much?

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Erika‏ @Erikajakins Aug 20
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        I don’t think people should even Poll look what happened in 2016 . I think Trump will win his economy alone is huge compared to O’s . Plus people are being very secretive about who they are voting for

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