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mtracey's profile
Michael Tracey
Michael Tracey
Michael Tracey
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@mtracey

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Michael TraceyVerified account

@mtracey

Roving journalist, friend to all dogs mtracey@protonmail.com

NYC
patreon.com/mtracey
Joined March 2009

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    1. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey Jun 4
      • Report Tweet

      Michael Tracey Retweeted Steve Kornacki

      A lot fewer people dislike Biden than Hillary and that's a major electoral asset for him. Another reason why lazy equivalences of the two are so misguided, just from an analytical standpointhttps://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1136088681465466880 …

      Michael Tracey added,

      Steve Kornacki @SteveKornacki
      Biden is at 46-38% favorable/unfavorable with all voters in the the new CNN poll. Comparing his trend now with Hillary's four years ago as her campaign geared up.... Biden 5/31/19 46-38% 4/25/19 51-39% 12/9/18 54-29% Clinton 5/31/15 46-50% 3/15/15 53-44% 11/23/14 59-38%
      Show this thread
      25 replies 14 retweets 71 likes
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    2. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey Jun 4
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      Hillary favorable/unfavorable: 5/31/15 46-50% Biden favorable/unfavorable: 5/31/19 46-38% Both near-universally known at the time. So there's not going to be a ton of malleability in their favorability ratings. Maybe a bit around the margins, but it's mostly baked in.

      9 replies 12 retweets 34 likes
      Show this thread
      Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey Jun 4
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      CNN poll showed Hillary at 52% unfavorable by Oct. 2016, the final poll of the campaign. Not a statistically significant movement over the span of nearly 1.5 years. Biden's unfavorability "floor" appears to be much lower. Which suggests he'd be a stronger candidate than Hillary

      10:26 PM - 4 Jun 2019
      • 9 Retweets
      • 34 Likes
      • t. Luke Jones Chu Itoi Milind Namjoshi 福山万里子 Mariko Fukuyama Cheryl MacIntyre MicroaggressionMedia ✝️ ellen zee AOC's Gentrifying Socialist Revival/Great Awokenin Pat Connors
      35 replies 9 retweets 34 likes
        1. Ben Spielberg‏Verified account @BenSpielberg Jun 4
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          Replying to @mtracey

          You are undeniably correct that Biden has better poll numbers than Hillary had, but there is a pretty clear trend here.pic.twitter.com/CVa4JgmBYv

          0 replies 1 retweet 7 likes
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        1. Luke A‏ @realLukeMurray Jun 4
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Also 6 years older, 4 years later.

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        1. Bob‏ @b6m Jun 4
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          Replying to @mtracey

          That floor, even if right, doesn’t matter unless the numbers get there. No indication they will. I don’t trust CNNs polling anyway, they’ve proven to skew polls.

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        1. The Mathemagician‏ @Mathemagicianme Jun 4
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          Replying to @mtracey

          I'm sure your buddy Tucker Carlson would love to have this discussion with you on his show.

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        1. rhondo alameda‏ @Chaospress32 Jun 4
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          Replying to @mtracey

          OK Nate Silver.

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        1. Mister Nobody‏ @mister_nobody67 Jun 5
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Which isn't really saying very much. 🙂

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        1. Karen Santal‏ @KSantal Jun 5
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          Replying to @mtracey

          She had some fervent supporters though. Ed Rollins told Lou Dobbs that he'd never met anyone outside of Delaware who voted for Biden. That sums up Biden pretty well.

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        1. Lank‏ @lank52_lank Jun 5
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Biden is the hands down favorite no doubt. However he’s not well and it’s obvious. We’ll see how he holds up when the campaign is in full swing.

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        1. PoliticalJunkie‏ @JunkieJoePol Jun 5
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Same trend. More we learn and are reminded of each the less we like them. #bernie

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        1. Robert R. Freitag II‏ @freitag_ii Jun 5
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          Replying to @mtracey

          It's basically playing the Electoral College roulette wheel rather than adopting an aggressive general election campaign strategy to capture unaffiliated voters. It's a tacit admission that private clubs run the nation, not open public elections.

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        1. Golgo 13‏ @JamesRoberta7 Jun 5
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Biden is clearly less unpopular As of NOW. However he’s never been in the spotlight as the main guy for a full stretch run of a campaign where he’s been picked at. We shall see, but he certainly has the advantage as of now being the uncle Joe figure behind the scenes for decades

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        1. Roderick Burrell‏ @roderickburrell Jun 5
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          Replying to @mtracey

          I think Joe Biden has a stronger tendency to put his foot in his mouth than Hillary which means he has a greater chance to increase his unfavorables.

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        1. Matthew Battle‏ @librab103 Jun 5
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          Replying to @mtracey

          and it is not even primaries yet. Biden's numbers will continue to drop as we get into primaries!

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        1. Deflationista  🖕‏ @deflationista Jun 4
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Dude. Don't turn into Nate Silver. Please.

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        1. BOOdy GHOULiani‏ @jdtitan Jun 4
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Your mom is a strong candidate to get this d

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        1. Friday Sullivan‏ @FridaySullivan Jun 5
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Interesting stats. Biden does not have that HRC vulnerability. His problems are age; out of step with the younger, more vocal wing of the party; he’s a gaffe machine; and he is just a tad creepy.

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