Should go without saying that Bill James could be totally wrong. But I like to consume information from a variety of statisticians, journalists, etc. using differing methodologies. Because there's a ton of fluidity in the electorate right now, making it difficult to gauge
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he is a legend. he invented sabremetrics. but there's nothing sabremetric about doing your own polls and then drawing conclusions from them without publishing the methodology
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the guy who has been most demonstrably successful in applying sabremetrics to politics is, that's right, Nate Silver
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Bill James is smart in one field, sports. Sadly many smart people think that translates to other fields like politics. I wouldn't put much stock in his analysis.
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Only semi-related, but I’ve noticed that AOC seems to be buddying up with Warren recently.
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Bill James is not a pollster or a survey statistician. He offers no evidence to back up his claims. Sanders stands at around 18% on RCP poll averages...where he has been since the start of this race. He is #2 behind Biden and #3 is Warren. The progressives are strong
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Billy Bean's A's were the first to use sabremetrics. They won a lot of regular season games but never won a world series with it. Bean says its bc the playoffs are a crapshoot. Not sure how that translates to politics, so ...
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Perhaps if he post the methodology and cross-tabs. Seems something is amiss if he won't.
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Did he only poll in upper-crust Boston? Bc it seems like he did, haha.
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Being real- the only serious question now is, bar an incredible and disqualifying Biden gaffe or owning in a debate, is whether Biden or Trump will win. I feel bad for people that are still believing anyone but Biden has a chance.
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Possibly not. One of the weird peculiarities of Democrats historically is that they tend to avoid older candidates. That could hurt Biden in a big way over time.
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Sanders won't even stand up for Julian Assange. At some point, his idealistic following has to come crashing down.https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/04/12/no-bernies-not-anti-war/ …
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