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mtracey's profile
Michael Tracey
Michael Tracey
Michael Tracey
Verified account
@mtracey

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Michael TraceyVerified account

@mtracey

Roving journalist, friend to all dogs mtracey@protonmail.com

NYC
patreon.com/mtracey
Joined March 2009

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    Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 27
    • Report Tweet

    The legendary sabermetrician Bill James has his own presidential tracking poll and is convinced that Bernie will collapse. I don't understand the methodology but it's at least worth keeping an eye on. Bill James just won the Red Sox another World Series! https://www.billjamesonline.com/poll_report_may_26/ …pic.twitter.com/uvmxQBHMzk

    4:19 AM - 27 May 2019
    • 12 Retweets
    • 24 Likes
    • Derek ReaMon1815 Mike Esha 🌹 NoyoJimbo Travel True (Jason) craig middleton John Amerigo Chattin
    15 replies 12 retweets 24 likes
      1. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 27
        • Report Tweet

        Should go without saying that Bill James could be totally wrong. But I like to consume information from a variety of statisticians, journalists, etc. using differing methodologies. Because there's a ton of fluidity in the electorate right now, making it difficult to gauge

        12 replies 4 retweets 27 likes
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      2. LM Mayo‏ @tony_bicycle May 27
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        he is a legend. he invented sabremetrics. but there's nothing sabremetric about doing your own polls and then drawing conclusions from them without publishing the methodology

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. LM Mayo‏ @tony_bicycle May 27
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @tony_bicycle @mtracey

        the guy who has been most demonstrably successful in applying sabremetrics to politics is, that's right, Nate Silver

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. The Bearded Crank‏ @beardedcrank May 27
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        Replying to @mtracey

        Bill James is smart in one field, sports. Sadly many smart people think that translates to other fields like politics. I wouldn't put much stock in his analysis.

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      1. Josiah Neeley  🤔‏ @jneeley78 May 27
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        Replying to @mtracey

        Only semi-related, but I’ve noticed that AOC seems to be buddying up with Warren recently.

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      1. K Kroeger‏ @KRobertKroeger1 May 27
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        Bill James is not a pollster or a survey statistician. He offers no evidence to back up his claims. Sanders stands at around 18% on RCP poll averages...where he has been since the start of this race. He is #2 behind Biden and #3 is Warren. The progressives are strong

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Wil‏ @AgroWil May 27
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        Billy Bean's A's were the first to use sabremetrics. They won a lot of regular season games but never won a world series with it. Bean says its bc the playoffs are a crapshoot. Not sure how that translates to politics, so ...

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      1. #WomenForBernie #NotMeUs #ResidueForBernie  ⏳‏ @RobertaAAvery May 27
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        Perhaps if he post the methodology and cross-tabs. Seems something is amiss if he won't.

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      2. Derrick Ferree‏ @ferree_derrick May 27
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        Replying to @mtracey

        Did he only poll in upper-crust Boston? Bc it seems like he did, haha.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. coochiepls‏ @kindman69 May 27
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @ferree_derrick @mtracey

        Being real- the only serious question now is, bar an incredible and disqualifying Biden gaffe or owning in a debate, is whether Biden or Trump will win. I feel bad for people that are still believing anyone but Biden has a chance.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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      2. MR‏ @michael_ryman May 27
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        Replying to @RightHookUSA @mtracey

        Possibly not. One of the weird peculiarities of Democrats historically is that they tend to avoid older candidates. That could hurt Biden in a big way over time.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. End of conversation
      1. MR‏ @michael_ryman May 27
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        Sanders won't even stand up for Julian Assange. At some point, his idealistic following has to come crashing down.https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/04/12/no-bernies-not-anti-war/ …

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