Trump fans and perhaps Trump himself are being smugly over-confident if they assume impeachment will automatically redound to his political benefit. "Base" will be emboldened, but Trump needs more than 30% of the vote to win re-election. Unclear how that next 15-20% will react
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Just as Trump's "base" will be energized by impeachment proceedings, so will the Dem "base," which is extremely active right now (as evidenced by, among other things, historic turnout in the 2018 midterms). Anyone who claims they know exactly how this plays out is blowing smoke
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I think it's way too early to try to price anything in. So either side claiming they know what to expect if impeachment does proceed is fooling themselves. We're just about 18 months away here.
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If impeachment starts, Barr is warning that Trump is going to go scorched earth on the deep state that did Russia collusion thing. Many dems and possibly their media counterparts are going to be caught in the bloodbath. Who wriggles to the top of mess, my money on Trump.
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His base doesn’t really like war, so if engages in nonsense his base will start to flee.
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"Also Bush won the 2000 election" Did he though?
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Bush didn’t really win the 2000 election, and I don’t just mean the popular vote. The Supreme Court stepped in and handed him the election. Some studies have concluded that Gore likely would have won if there was a proper recount in Florida. https://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/politics/2001-05-10-recountmain.htm#more …
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Well, Bush Jr. had to steal it to win, but he was able to steal it because the outcome was pretty much a draw (helped along by Florida's intensive voter-suppression tactics). And the blow-jobs and resulting drama were a big part of the reason it ended up a draw.
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Clinton had the media on his side
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But Bush didn't win b/c of Clinton impeachment. He won b/c -despite Clinton's increased popularity- Gore distanced himself from him. (Oh, also Gore was a terrible candidate, Florida Dems were disenfranchised by J Bush and K Harris, and SCOTUS!)
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Impeachment hearings would include a truck load of declassification that would crush the left. It would also come at a time when Huber is releasing his report, which won't be good for Dems, but
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Trump has low 90s approval rating with GOP voters. Won WI, PA, MI because of Dem policies not because of who Clinton or Trump is/was. He will become more popular with GOP while people in those states will stay home or vote for Trump.
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Also true. Clinton was not facing a 24/7 weaponized media propaganda machine. Very different.
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Sure he won.
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What about the investigation into the coup? Where does that go?
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