You could imagine a scenario where some portion of the 15-20% of "soft Trump" voters become fatigued by all the drama, assign blame partially to Trump, and just want to move on, which means voting for his opponent -- even if they don't fully approve of Congressional Dems' tactics
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And again, the Clinton impeachment is not a good precedent here. Yes, Clinton got marginally more popular afterwards, but the impeachment occurred after he was re-elected and this would be a substantially different set of circumstances. (Also, uh, Bush won the 2000 election)
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Just as Trump's "base" will be energized by impeachment proceedings, so will the Dem "base," which is extremely active right now (as evidenced by, among other things, historic turnout in the 2018 midterms). Anyone who claims they know exactly how this plays out is blowing smoke
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The fact that 71% of the population feel the economy is good or great is probably the number one data point for Dem’s to consider but haven’t if they plan on selecting Biden.
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If it gets any better people vacationing in Montana will think their in some Western Ghost town.
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Well...if it happens and he loses, GOP will just impeach his successor. It will be a new precedent that requires little to no reasoning. Congress will keep going further down the toilet.
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How? It will still be a dem controlled congress. They won't schedule that kind of vote. People are ALWAYS moving to impeach, Most of the time it's just symbolic and can't go anywhere.
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The United States would enter truly uncharted waters were Trump to be impeached. Personally, I think the only certainty is the increasing political fatigue of even the most engaged voters. Voters will 'switch off' to political news in droves, who knows who that will benefit?
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True, and there's already a large chunk of dems that feel disenfranchised after what the DNC did to Bernie in 2016. That will probably happen again (Tulsi), and I wonder if they're just going to not vote or what will happen there.
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Michael, I agree with a lot of what you say in your thread with this exception. The Democrat candidates are awful. That may be a long term trend. The positions they take are so far off what most Americans, even liberal democrats believe the party will eventually need to regroup.
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Fraud also will be ramped up on the D side.
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Ignorance in thinking it won't help. Sure it is not 100% guaranteed it will help but it most likely just add to the already high chance Trump has of winning a 2nd term. Trump doesn't need 45% of the vote, he just needs 270 EVs which will come down to 3 states IMO.
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Fair play. But this is Trump's wheel house. People have been predicting Trump fatigue for literally 2 generations.
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They’ll go Trump’s way. Low information swing voters don’t know much about facts, but they’re good at detecting bad faith accusations over the long run.
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It’s about what % goes to vote on each side, in each place. By definition the fluctuant voters aren’t moved by « party wars » argument anyway. I suspect trade wars, wars, economy, health care are mire important to them.
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His base is more than 30%....
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I think it’s all a show and they have openly admitted it.
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Very true. Only Trump knows the truth about Russia, and he is known for his public projection of extreme overconfidence.
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It's geninely amusing just how massively wrong you are on these assertions. Wid take too many twitter characters to explain. Time will show you just how little you know about this man Trump
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