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mtracey's profile
Michael Tracey
Michael Tracey
Michael Tracey
Verified account
@mtracey

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Michael TraceyVerified account

@mtracey

Roving journalist, friend to all dogs mtracey@protonmail.com

NYC
patreon.com/mtracey
Joined March 2009

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    1. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 15
      • Report Tweet

      The Young Turks did a really dumb segment suggesting that CNN had maliciously skewed a poll to downplay Bernie and boost Biden. This led to Nate Silver rightfully skewering them. As a past target of Nate’s sassy trolling, it pains me to say this, but I stand with Nate

      55 replies 24 retweets 152 likes
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    2. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 15
      • Report Tweet

      Nate is mostly reliable when he’s talking about the pure mechanics of polling, models, and related methodological stuff. He gets dumb when he’s just opining pundit-style on random stuff

      25 replies 14 retweets 160 likes
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      Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 15
      • Report Tweet

      Objecting to how media frames or emphasizes polling is perfectly fair: i've done it many times, and will continue to do so. But making specious claims about the methodology because it doesn't produce the outcome you want is just stupid. Motivated reasoning in action

      4:19 PM - 15 May 2019
      • 6 Retweets
      • 42 Likes
      • David Niddam-Dent Mike Cohen Let the People Decide! Matthew Zeppieri Derek Adam K. Patriot Jose Fernandez Goffredo Tedesco Benevolent Soylord 𓆏🦀
      8 replies 6 retweets 42 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Jordan‏Verified account @JordanChariton May 15
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @mtracey

          I can only speak for myself but it’s fairly black and white. The polls are undersampling voters under 40 (Bernie’s strongest demo) and oversampling 50+. Whatever the reason they do this is opinion—I doubt it’s sinister—My guess is laziness and also not adapting to NEW voting

          5 replies 2 retweets 17 likes
        3. Jordan‏Verified account @JordanChariton May 15
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          Replying to @JordanChariton @mtracey

          Trends (not accurate to still say we’re representing traditional turnout for these age groups when the younger one in particular has has record turnout in 2016 and 2018). But what IS untoward and deceitful on the part of ALL of these pollsters (and the networks and papers) is

          3 replies 2 retweets 14 likes
        4. 2 more replies
        1. Barnaby Tudbubble‏ @BTudbubble May 15
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Mr. Tracey - was the CNN poll in question the one that - according to CNNs only report - radically undersampled everyone under 50? They did this same thing in the previous primary.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Keep Punching Up‏ @Truth_OverT May 15
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          Replying to @mtracey

          I'd say the problem is not necessarily the method, but that it's being pushed as something else. "Biden is up on Bernie by this much!" Well... not exactly. And isn't this the biggest issue with media? Lying by omission, or, pushing a skewed reality?

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Lawrence Magnuson‏ @ElmagnotheFinn May 15
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          Replying to @mtracey

          You haven't offered a single fact or a specific defense of CNN's methodology. Not here, not now. I've heard the wind blow before, and now I'm hearing it again. You seem to say honorably fix, massage a failed sampling. Instead of doing it right the first time.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Franklin Rapport‏ @horrdorr May 15
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Imagine if the silent majority actually voted instead of feeling totally disenfranchised.pic.twitter.com/J54fGpjnpt

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. liberallarry‏ @liberallarry2 May 16
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          Replying to @mtracey

          I object to whatever method he used to arrive at the conclusion Hillary has a 99% win chance on election day.

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        1. Sol Invictus‏ @UndefeatedSun May 15
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          Replying to @mtracey

          The Young Turks is an exercise in motivated reasoning.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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