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mtracey's profile
Michael Tracey
Michael Tracey
Michael Tracey
Verified account
@mtracey

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Michael TraceyVerified account

@mtracey

Roving journalist, friend to all dogs mtracey@protonmail.com

NYC
patreon.com/mtracey
Joined March 2009

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    1. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 15
      • Report Tweet

      The Young Turks did a really dumb segment suggesting that CNN had maliciously skewed a poll to downplay Bernie and boost Biden. This led to Nate Silver rightfully skewering them. As a past target of Nate’s sassy trolling, it pains me to say this, but I stand with Nate

      55 replies 24 retweets 152 likes
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    2. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 15
      • Report Tweet

      Nate is mostly reliable when he’s talking about the pure mechanics of polling, models, and related methodological stuff. He gets dumb when he’s just opining pundit-style on random stuff

      25 replies 14 retweets 160 likes
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    3. Jordan‏Verified account @JordanChariton May 15
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @mtracey

      Not sure which poll TYT’s segment is referencing but I have reported previously on CNN’s polling that oversampled 50+ by a significant margin—which is deceptive considering 2016 & 2018 saw record number of young peoppe voting.

      2 replies 2 retweets 38 likes
    4. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 15
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @JordanChariton

      CNN "weights" younger voters in the sample because they don't answer the phone at the same rates as older voters. It doesn't mean the poll is being maliciously skewed to harm Bernie. This whole "unskew the polls" business has always been ridiculous.

      7 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
    5. Jordan‏Verified account @JordanChariton May 15
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @mtracey

      Regardless of the reason CNN or others undersample younger voters—they don’t answer the phone or they simply don’t attempt to have an equal distribution—is irrelevant. If you’re using the poll to give the most accurate, contextual representation of the electorate...especially of

      2 replies 4 retweets 29 likes
    6. Jordan‏Verified account @JordanChariton May 15
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      Replying to @JordanChariton @mtracey

      Dem primary contest (where the two top candidates have a clear contrast in terms of support among age groups)...you can’t have 60-70% of those polled be 50+ and simultaneously say it’s an accurate poll

      1 reply 4 retweets 25 likes
    7. Jordan‏Verified account @JordanChariton May 15
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      Replying to @JordanChariton @mtracey

      At the VERY least, the pollsters should have it very clear, up front that the poll skews older (just like networks and papers should have made clear in 2016 superdelegates are separate from pledged delegates when lumping them together on screen)

      2 replies 2 retweets 14 likes
      Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 15
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      Replying to @JordanChariton

      The poll didn't skew older. The number of respondents skewed older, and that's why they give greater "weight" to young respondents, to account for that very discrepancy.

      4:13 PM - 15 May 2019
      • 1 Retweet
      • 2 Likes
      • Alex Blair jemmaline Halton Hui
      4 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
        1.  ⏳Lally Weymouth's Southampton Home ⏳ #Unity4J‏ @OrganicCucumber May 15
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @mtracey @JordanChariton

          What is their "weighting" methodology? if there are so few voters in the younger brackets that they write n/a in the crosstabs whatever they've come up with to compensate for this certainly deserves a ton of scrutiny if it is to be taken at face value.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. Plain Ol' Johnny Graz‏ @jvgraz May 15
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          Replying to @mtracey @JordanChariton

          And that weighting is very problematic. When you take groups too insignificant to merit crosstabs and multiply their results, you explode the margin of error for the entire poll. Weighting is not a substitute for a properly-distributed sample.

          2 replies 3 retweets 38 likes
        3. ShadowBand‏ @jg3arrow May 15
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          Replying to @jvgraz @mtracey @JordanChariton

          Let’s “weight” Bugatti owner experiences in the annual Consumer Reports auto reliability survey!

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
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        2. Jordan‏Verified account @JordanChariton May 15
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @mtracey

          Like I said I didn’t watch TYT segment so not sure which CNN poll they are referencing. The one I reported on a few weeks ago polled less than 125 people under age of 40 (913 total polled)

          2 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
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        1. mksandman‏ @szym_rob May 15
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          Replying to @mtracey @JordanChariton

          When it comes to poll accuracy, take a refresher on what happened in 2016. Oversampling does not work

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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