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mtracey's profile
Michael Tracey
Michael Tracey
Michael Tracey
Verified account
@mtracey

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Michael TraceyVerified account

@mtracey

Roving journalist, friend to all dogs mtracey@protonmail.com

NYC
patreon.com/mtracey
Joined March 2009

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    1. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 15
      • Report Tweet

      The Young Turks did a really dumb segment suggesting that CNN had maliciously skewed a poll to downplay Bernie and boost Biden. This led to Nate Silver rightfully skewering them. As a past target of Nate’s sassy trolling, it pains me to say this, but I stand with Nate

      55 replies 24 retweets 152 likes
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    2. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 15
      • Report Tweet

      Nate is mostly reliable when he’s talking about the pure mechanics of polling, models, and related methodological stuff. He gets dumb when he’s just opining pundit-style on random stuff

      25 replies 14 retweets 160 likes
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    3. Jordan‏Verified account @JordanChariton May 15
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @mtracey

      Not sure which poll TYT’s segment is referencing but I have reported previously on CNN’s polling that oversampled 50+ by a significant margin—which is deceptive considering 2016 & 2018 saw record number of young peoppe voting.

      2 replies 2 retweets 38 likes
      Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 15
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      Replying to @JordanChariton

      CNN "weights" younger voters in the sample because they don't answer the phone at the same rates as older voters. It doesn't mean the poll is being maliciously skewed to harm Bernie. This whole "unskew the polls" business has always been ridiculous.

      4:06 PM - 15 May 2019
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      7 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
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        2. Jordan‏Verified account @JordanChariton May 15
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Regardless of the reason CNN or others undersample younger voters—they don’t answer the phone or they simply don’t attempt to have an equal distribution—is irrelevant. If you’re using the poll to give the most accurate, contextual representation of the electorate...especially of

          2 replies 4 retweets 29 likes
        3. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 15
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          Replying to @JordanChariton

          They adjust the sample to account for the proportional underrepresentation of young voters. So younger voters are accurately accounted for in the methodology of the poll. Every other poll also showed Biden getting a significant boost after he announced. This is really silly..

          8 replies 1 retweet 7 likes
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        2.  ⏳Lally Weymouth's Southampton Home ⏳ #Unity4J‏ @OrganicCucumber May 15
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @mtracey @JordanChariton

          Even if it isn't "maliciously skewed", It seems that it would be incumbent upon CNN to be transparent with their sampling methodology. A poll that undersamples certain age brackets is likely to be less accurate then one with a normally distributed sample. Intention is superfluous

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Brian Cairns‏ @briantcairns May 15
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          Replying to @OrganicCucumber @mtracey @JordanChariton

          They don't under or over sample anyone, they talk to who answers & weight the polls to what they think turnout demographics will be. It's what all polling orgs have always done.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Chris Sharp‏ @chrisscottsharp May 15
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          Replying to @mtracey @JordanChariton

          Agreed on the backlash being ridiculous at times but you gotta admit- MSM frames its headlines on Landline poll results ridiculously at times too.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Lawrence Magnuson‏ @ElmagnotheFinn May 15
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          Replying to @mtracey @JordanChariton

          CNN is the greatest! Most far and most scientific. Unbiased or slightly biased for Sanders. Within the margin of error, of course.

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        2. Matthew Battle‏ @librab103 May 15
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          Replying to @mtracey @JordanChariton

          Which means the poll should not be released if the pollster cannot get a good sample.

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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