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mtracey's profile
Michael Tracey
Michael Tracey
Michael Tracey
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@mtracey

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Michael TraceyVerified account

@mtracey

Roving journalist, friend to all dogs mtracey@protonmail.com

NYC
patreon.com/mtracey
Joined March 2009

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    1. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 15
      • Report Tweet

      The Young Turks did a really dumb segment suggesting that CNN had maliciously skewed a poll to downplay Bernie and boost Biden. This led to Nate Silver rightfully skewering them. As a past target of Nate’s sassy trolling, it pains me to say this, but I stand with Nate

      55 replies 24 retweets 152 likes
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      Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 15
      • Report Tweet

      Nate is mostly reliable when he’s talking about the pure mechanics of polling, models, and related methodological stuff. He gets dumb when he’s just opining pundit-style on random stuff

      3:09 PM - 15 May 2019
      • 14 Retweets
      • 160 Likes
      • I Geordie_Republic I Hallcyon, Dissident Connoisseur Grimbald the Wizard Donald Spines Edgar Fiendly 🇺🇸🇮🇱🏁 ⚥ Matt Needham watch_doge afternoonsand J C
      25 replies 14 retweets 160 likes
        1. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 15
          • Report Tweet

          Objecting to how media frames or emphasizes polling is perfectly fair: i've done it many times, and will continue to do so. But making specious claims about the methodology because it doesn't produce the outcome you want is just stupid. Motivated reasoning in action

          8 replies 6 retweets 42 likes
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        2. Jordan‏Verified account @JordanChariton May 15
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @mtracey

          Not sure which poll TYT’s segment is referencing but I have reported previously on CNN’s polling that oversampled 50+ by a significant margin—which is deceptive considering 2016 & 2018 saw record number of young peoppe voting.

          2 replies 2 retweets 38 likes
        3. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 15
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @JordanChariton

          CNN "weights" younger voters in the sample because they don't answer the phone at the same rates as older voters. It doesn't mean the poll is being maliciously skewed to harm Bernie. This whole "unskew the polls" business has always been ridiculous.

          7 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
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        2. Ten gallon head‏ @Admeer May 15
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Sure, he killed it with predictions in 2016.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Brian  🇲🇽 🇮🇱‏ @SpeakingBee May 15
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @Admeer @mtracey

          Yes. Nate's quality analysis blew everyone else out of the water in 2016. It was well explained and documented and much, much more accurate and predictive than any other source of election news and analysis.

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Archtype‏ @Archtype May 15
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @mtracey

          I'd say his polling and opining are one and the same.

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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        2. hidflect‏ @hidflect May 15
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @mtracey

          So.. what about his prediction for a Hillary landslide?

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Christopher Esposito‏ @crabioscar May 15
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @hidflect @mtracey

          You must be thinking about Sate Nilver

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Bobby From The Bronx‏ @newkingofmedia May 15
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Polling is absolutely unreliable. It borders on junk science

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. bilding1‏ @bilding1 May 15
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Indeed.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Janz Fred‏ @JanzFred1 May 15
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Silver routinely used skewed sampling in 2016.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Keep Punching Up‏ @Truth_OverT May 15
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @mtracey

          ...nah. You're really defending CNN and Nate Silver? Numbers have their place but he's obviously biased.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Todd Appel‏ @ToddAppel May 15
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Yeahpic.twitter.com/Z52leJp4VC

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. miasmo‏ @miasmo_ May 15
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Rain Man should stay in his lane.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Rogue Doctor‏ @m_s_goodrich May 15
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          Replying to @mtracey

          ... or predicting political elections.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Jeff Patterson‏ @JeffPat36271889 May 15
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @mtracey

          That 2016 polling was spot wrong.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Brian  🇲🇽 🇮🇱‏ @SpeakingBee May 15
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @JeffPat36271889 @mtracey

          The polling was mediocre, but Nate's analysis was spot on, though.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. DJ Goal Dangerous‏ @TyCurtright May 15
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @mtracey

          Granted. But how is polling 65% over 50 legit? Am I wrong here???

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        1. Matthew Battle‏ @librab103 May 15
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          Replying to @mtracey

          lol. Nate is a hack who knows how to spin garbage polls because we have given him too much authority in polling.

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        1. Todd Appel‏ @ToddAppel May 15
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @mtracey

          You think he has no bias to what he does? Ha ha ha ha. Polls are now like journalism. Money pollutes it all and buys what it needs. Pollsters tell their patrons what they want to hear.

          0 replies 1 retweet 1 like
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