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mtracey's profile
Michael Tracey
Michael Tracey
Michael Tracey
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@mtracey

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Michael TraceyVerified account

@mtracey

Roving journalist, friend to all dogs mtracey@protonmail.com

NYC
patreon.com/mtracey
Joined March 2009

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    1. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 10
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      As I discuss in the essay, one key early Biden endorser who hasn't gotten much attention is Rep. Don McEachin (D-VA). McEachin is heading House candidate recruitment for Dems in 2020. So there will be subtle (or not so subtle) pressures for these candidates to endorse Biden

      5 replies 14 retweets 47 likes
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    2. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 10
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      Example of the impotence of Biden's opposition: today people on Twitter are raging about some policy he put forward. Maybe it's good, maybe it's bad. It doesn't matter. The policies voters associate with him are those enacted under the 8-year Obama presidency. Accept that or lose

      24 replies 9 retweets 52 likes
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    3. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 10
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      Michael Tracey Retweeted Greg Sargent

      Another key advantage Biden has that Hillary lacked:https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1126940488756494337 …

      Michael Tracey added,

      Greg SargentVerified account @ThePlumLineGS
      Replying to @yeselson @DavidKlion @pasta_ben
      Biden as veep four years ago (as opposed to running for a third straight term of his party) gives him the added advantage of conveying "restoration" for these types of voters. Dose of nostalgia thrown in.
      25 replies 6 retweets 58 likes
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    4. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 10
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      And another advantage I forgot to mention in the piece: Biden recently shut down his personal "foundation," which was nowhere near the scope of the Clinton Foundation -- which the Clintons refused to shut down in 2016, leading to (accurate) accusations of nepotism and corruption

      24 replies 21 retweets 154 likes
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    5. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 10
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      It’s amazing to me how quick people are to scream that I’m somehow “shilling” for Biden, as if I suddenly decided that I love him and want him to be president. No, I’m just trying to describe the dynamics operative in a Democratic primary. Descriptive vs normative: look it up

      48 replies 24 retweets 232 likes
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    6. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 11
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      Hillary didn't benefit from her association with Obama nearly as much as Biden because 1) she ran against Obama in 2008 and attacked him viciously 2) She wasn't elected twice on the same ticket as Obama, unlike Biden 3) Biden's personal relationship with Obama is much closer

      20 replies 11 retweets 66 likes
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    7. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 11
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      According to a study of Facebook sentiment data in 2014, Biden was the most popular Democrat in the country. The study showed that 67% of the conversation on Facebook about him was positive, far outscoring Hillary on that metrichttps://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/bensmith/the-facebook-election …

      13 replies 6 retweets 23 likes
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    8. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 11
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      That will probably drop somewhat as he participates in a contentious primary race. But it indicates that the baseline of "positivity" Democrats feel toward him is much higher than Hillary's ever was, which is yet another major strength he possesses relative to Hillary

      26 replies 3 retweets 46 likes
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    9. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 11
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      I think pundits really underrate the appeal of returning to "normalcy" for Democratic primary voters. That's been the refrain under Trump: THIS IS NOT NORMAL. How better to restore the "normal" order of things then to nominate the last "normal" president's trusty, avuncular VP?

      30 replies 10 retweets 64 likes
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    10. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 11
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      One irony of Biden benefiting greatly from his unparalleled association with Obama is that the operatives, lobbyists, and consultants who comprise "Obama World" didn't particularly want him to run. They largely ranged from agnostic to hostile. Interesting dynamic to keep in mind

      13 replies 14 retweets 88 likes
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      Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 11
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      Also note that I am NOT saying Bernie has no chance, or that Biden is somehow a shoe-in for the nomination. I still think Bernie has many unique strengths and is well-positioned to win in a lot of ways. My purpose is to outline the dynamics that could give rise to a Biden victory

      7:59 AM - 11 May 2019
      • 9 Retweets
      • 66 Likes
      • Chris Allen Steinar Rotlid Sue Flavin Bonaparte William Zelin bookworm Liliana Jeffrey A Nolan NeoLiberalism Sucks! Gritty Green Socialist
      24 replies 9 retweets 66 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 11
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          Good item here illustrating the unique value of the Vice Presidency in equipping candidates to obtain their Party's nomination, and why Biden's two previous failed runs are basically irrelevant now. Accords with the reasoning I laid out in my essay http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/dont-sell-bidens-vice-presidential-experience-short/ …pic.twitter.com/gzMzLDikw5

          12 replies 8 retweets 29 likes
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        3. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 11
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          Note in particular that Biden's approval rating was substantially *higher* than Obama's when they left office in 2017. I find it really weird that pundits are so reluctant to acknowledge the obvious political strengths conferred to Biden by the Vice Presidencypic.twitter.com/b1AKRacH24

          18 replies 7 retweets 30 likes
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        4. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 11
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          Illustrative piece on the relative coolness of the Obama alumni world toward Biden. Note, not a single one of them is even considering Bernie. (Also note that Obama approved of Biden using Obama's voice in a campaign ad, which is significant)https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-joe-biden-seeks-the-obama-mantle-many-obama-loyalists-wait-to-see-who-lights-a-fire/2019/05/11/6ed9beaa-7322-11e9-9f06-5fc2ee80027a_story.html …

          18 replies 12 retweets 27 likes
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        5. End of conversation
        1. PharmaHeretic‏ @Pharmaheretic May 11
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          Replying to @mtracey

          The possibility that other candidates might decide to go on a scorched earth campaign against Obama's legacy cannot be ruled out. In fact, it is far more likely than most people (including yourself) are willing to accept. Remember that Bernie is not going to run again in 2024.

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        1. Robert R. Freitag II‏ @freitag_ii May 11
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Well, here's my take: Sanders winning would be a wonderful Christmas present. But even if that didn't happen, it would still reduce the credibility of the Dem establishment, and that's an undeniable positive good. I'm a little disappointed the job wasn't finished in 2016, but-

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        1. ReadyRockingResidue‏ @charliecooper3_ May 11
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          Replying to @mtracey

          If Biden wins, isn’t far more likely Trump will defeat him?

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        1. Maurice Thinks‏ @MauriceThoughts May 11
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          Replying to @mtracey

          @JoeBiden supported the 1994 crime bill, boosted the credit card industry, dismissed Anita Hill’s sexual harassment claims, supported agreements with China, the Defense Of Marriage Act, NAFTA, the Iraq war, etc. He has as much baggage as Hillary, watch out for @PeteButtigieg

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        1. political piggy‏ @piggy_political May 11
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          Replying to @mtracey

          I am tired of the Democratic Party it is garbage!

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        1. Mister Nobody‏ @mister_nobody67 May 11
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          Replying to @mtracey

          As you should. We need more clear-eyed analysis. 😎

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        1. Jeffrey A Nolan‏ @JeffreyANolan1 May 11
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Politics often seems counterintuitive. When I look at his policies, I'm appalled, but politically, people like him. "I'd like to have him over for The 4th, but I wouldn't want him to be president. He was a good vp, but he's too clowny for the oval," is what I think about him.

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        1. Casey Atchison‏ @RB_Atch May 11
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Biden’s an Establishment poster child with 45+ year voting record to back it up. Bernie is the exact opposite. Next

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        1. Anne Pickering‏ @CatchlightAnne May 11
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Truth hurts Michael and perhaps I’m just worn out by dear Bernie’s ‘Hope and Change’ - oh, that was someone else. Point is Bernie stumps as a martyr imo ‘Not me, you’. Still a year out but doubt Bernie thinks he will be POTUS. What he doesn’t realize is he’s a living saint

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        1. Justin‏ @Icecreammanjust May 11
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Any and all of these dynamics have a high chance of being nothing when debates start. Progressives should be able to thwart Biden’s message easily with theirs.

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        1. Matthew Battle‏ @librab103 May 11
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Bernie has no chance because the Dem establishment cannot risk the party moving to the Left. They will once again get behind a horrible poltician who will lose to Trump. 2024 I suspect it will be Harris.

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        1. New conversation
        2. ShaneWolfe‏ @GBotMAB May 11
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Well that, and the DNC is still firmly in the grips of the Clinton mafia point more towards Biden, TBH

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Robert R. Freitag II‏ @freitag_ii May 11
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          Replying to @GBotMAB @mtracey

          Yeah, I would have hoped that 2016 would have finished them off. But on the other hand, I don't think it can be denied that they are significantly weaker today because of 2016. So is the glass half full or half empty?

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. 2 more replies
        1. Drain Bamage 🍥‏ @IsDrainBamaged May 11
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Drain Bamage 🍥 Retweeted Walker Bragman

          Yeah, Biden doesn't stand a chance. Such a messy bed he's making.https://twitter.com/WalkerBragman/status/1127227719438295040 …

          Drain Bamage 🍥 added,

          Walker BragmanVerified account @WalkerBragman
          Extremely Nate Silver voice: This is actually what Democrats want to hear and somehow harmful to Bernie Sanders. https://twitter.com/IbrahimAS97/status/1127031297505935360/video/1 …
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        1. Joel Xavier Fay‏ @jxavierf74 May 11
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Bernie has no chance

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