I'm thinking the closest analog for the 2020 Dem primaries could be 2004. Field was ostensibly wide open, Dean attracted early energy and attention, but ultimately voters coalesced around the more "electable" candidate (Kerry) because their overriding objective was to beat Bush
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Of course, Kerry didn't turn out to be "electable" -- all his purported strengths were transformed by the GOP into liabilities ("flip-flopper," denigrating his Vietnam service) but that was the thinking of the Dem primary electorate at the time. Hence the current appeal of Biden
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I have certain preferences (in terms of candidates, policy outcomes, etc.) but I at least try to subordinate them analytically when assessing political dynamics: in other words, I try to be "impartial" when analyzing events. Most in the punditocracy don't even attempt to do this
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Michael Tracey Retweeted AP Politics
This is a lot of money, and I'd wager that most Democrats are *happy* that Biden is raising a lot of money from wealthy donors, because they want him to have as much money as possible in service of defeating Trumphttps://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1126667429398999041 …
Michael Tracey added,
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Michael Tracey Retweeted Pod Save America
Abrams running would be bad for Biden. It would place additional pressure on black elected officials to stay neutral, whereas Biden wants them to endorse early. (He's already gotten several notable endorsements from powerful black Dems)https://twitter.com/PodSaveAmerica/status/1126563669255397376 …
Michael Tracey added,
0:17Pod Save AmericaVerified account @PodSaveAmerica.@danpfeiffer "It has been reported that you are still considering joining the ever-growing democratic presidential field. Is that true?"@staceyabrams: "Yes." Stacey Abrams joins today's Pod, out this afternoon: http://applepodcasts.com/podsaveamerica pic.twitter.com/42pxs22VFi9 replies 7 retweets 29 likesShow this thread -
John Lewis famously endorsed Hillary early in the 2008 cycle, but then withdrew the endorsement and endorsed Obama once he started winning primaries and caucuses. That was an extremely important development for Obama. Could imagine a roughly similar dynamic playing out this time
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Might get in trouble for saying this, but whatever: Abrams clearly has a more natural attachment to black voters writ large than Harris, and even arguably Booker. Southern blacks in particular, which is the constituency Biden needs most. (Majority of SC Dem electorate is black)
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Yeah, blacks base everything on race, which is why they overwhelmingly favor Biden. Idiot
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