I'm thinking the closest analog for the 2020 Dem primaries could be 2004. Field was ostensibly wide open, Dean attracted early energy and attention, but ultimately voters coalesced around the more "electable" candidate (Kerry) because their overriding objective was to beat Bush
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I have certain preferences (in terms of candidates, policy outcomes, etc.) but I at least try to subordinate them analytically when assessing political dynamics: in other words, I try to be "impartial" when analyzing events. Most in the punditocracy don't even attempt to do this
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This is a lot of money, and I'd wager that most Democrats are *happy* that Biden is raising a lot of money from wealthy donors, because they want him to have as much money as possible in service of defeating Trumphttps://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1126667429398999041 …
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Abrams running would be bad for Biden. It would place additional pressure on black elected officials to stay neutral, whereas Biden wants them to endorse early. (He's already gotten several notable endorsements from powerful black Dems)https://twitter.com/PodSaveAmerica/status/1126563669255397376 …
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John Lewis famously endorsed Hillary early in the 2008 cycle, but then withdrew the endorsement and endorsed Obama once he started winning primaries and caucuses. That was an extremely important development for Obama. Could imagine a roughly similar dynamic playing out this time
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Might get in trouble for saying this, but whatever: Abrams clearly has a more natural attachment to black voters writ large than Harris, and even arguably Booker. Southern blacks in particular, which is the constituency Biden needs most. (Majority of SC Dem electorate is black)
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I think Kerry's military background played a bigger role than we remember, at a time when American war-lust was in full. He came into the race a decorated veteran who had become a vocal opponent of the war. Given economy+post 9/11 I think Kerry did better than he gets credit for.
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But he also voted for the war and had to come up with a convoluted rationalization for that, which reinforced the "flip-flopper" image the GOP successfully crafted.
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That may be the thinking of rank and file voters, but the party establishment and corporate media are much more worried about Bernie beating Trump than they are about him losing to Trump. The "electability" issue is largely gaslighting people out of voting for what they want.
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Pundits/party leaders would be wise to follow the energy of the people. Electable is a nonsense description wrought with ill-conceived speculation.
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Do you think the overwhelming media coverage is a function of this "electorate appeal" or vice versa?
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It'll be hilarious if trump somehow wins the popular vote and those blue states which voted to give all their electoral votes to the popular vote winner have to award them to trump.
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Gee, almost like a team effort of elite, skull & bones, the Bush dynasty. "It's a big club, but you ain't in it"
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Complete misreading of history of the 2004 election where polls had Kerry having a slim lead over Dubya causing Karl Rove to aggressively promote in battleground states anti-gay legislation to get the base out.
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Biden was a terrible presidential candidate in 2007-8. More likable than Kerry, but in other ways very similarly.. ‘meh. He is only considered attractive now for having been picked by Obama. & Why did Obama pick him? Boring familiar bland generic D.
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