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mtracey's profile
Michael Tracey
Michael Tracey
Michael Tracey
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@mtracey

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Michael TraceyVerified account

@mtracey

Roving journalist, friend to all dogs mtracey@protonmail.com

NYC
patreon.com/mtracey
Joined March 2009

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    1. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 6
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      If the economy stays relatively "good," at least in the macro sense, I wouldn't underestimate the appeal of returning to the pre-Trump status quo in the Dem electorate. Yes, there's upheaval globally and in the US, but it can be counteracted by a nostalgic desire for "normalcy"

      31 replies 23 retweets 85 likes
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    2. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 6
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      Also recall: turnout in the 2016 Dem primaries was relatively low, which augured Hillary's eventual defeat. It's likely to be much higher in 2020. And people turning out could disproportionately be "normie Dems" who like Biden and aren't interested in sweeping structural change

      10 replies 11 retweets 45 likes
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    3. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 6
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      In general, there's a tendency for pundits to assume that every election cycle subsequent to 2016 will produce the same kind of "disruption" as was evident across the spectrum that year. Alternatively, it could've just been a unique aberration. "Good" economy would reinforce this

      6 replies 6 retweets 15 likes
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    4. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 6
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      The programming on MSNBC roughly captures the sensibilities of "normie Dems." MSNBC has not been focusing on the structural inequities that gave rise to Trump. They've been focusing on Trump's character flaws, and Russia. These voters turned out big in 2018 and will again in 2020

      5 replies 11 retweets 40 likes
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    5. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 6
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      I still think Bernie is the likeliest nominee at this point, and there's a decent chance Biden implodes. But just wanted to lay out some potential countervailing factors that could make this race turn out much differently than lots of people assume

      13 replies 9 retweets 43 likes
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    6. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 6
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      Primaries during years when there's an incumbent to defeat incentivize a certain kind of "conservatism" among the Party electorate: hence the overwhelming focus on "electability." See: John Kerry in 2004. Everybody thought he had the best chance to beat Bush. Vietnam service, etc

      3 replies 8 retweets 19 likes
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    7. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 6
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      In 2008, Bush was deeply unpopular after two terms and it was widely assumed that Dems were heavily favored no matter who they nominated. So voters were more willing to "take a chance" on a black guy whose middle name was "Hussein." Different set of incentives operative in 2020

      10 replies 10 retweets 38 likes
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      Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 6
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      It's also weird that pundits are so hostile to voters determining their preferences on the basis of "electability" when they've been screaming since 2016 that Hillary lost because she was unelectable due to sexism and racism or whatever

      4:48 AM - 6 May 2019
      • 18 Retweets
      • 59 Likes
      • JNetofLouin Sanford 2020🎃 Rando Mized43278 Saint Malcolm Dalai fox James Parris Pat Connors Neverevernever, nope - not ever! Rajesh Panday
      10 replies 18 retweets 59 likes
        1. AbhiDhabi5‏ @AbhiDhabi5 May 6
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Maybe these voters aren’t wrong? It seems crazy to think that they (or we) want or need sweeping structural changes to the economy when growth is solid, unemployment is low, and wages are rising.

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        1. The Great White Noise‏ @pwnzerfaust May 6
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Well it's because she was the 'electable' candidate.

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        1. Santos D  🌶‏ @Santos_D_2017 May 6
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          Replying to @mtracey

          "pundits are so hostile to voters determining their preferences on the basis of "electability" Isn't that ALL they ever say? :Policies don't matter, only defeating Trump matters" (ie, Biden & Buttigieg are electable, Bernie is not)? What am I missing?

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        2. Mr. Tatersalad‏ @MTatersalad May 6
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Pundits are snake oil salesman. It's why they can make so many conflicting statements or declarations & never face any serious harm to their careers. At this point many just repeat what others are saying & as long as the majority are saying such it's okay to be 100% wrong.

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        2. Matthew Battle‏ @librab103 May 6
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Congrats to Trump winning is what you are saying because you would think that to keep somebody like Trump out of office in 2016 Dems would be coming out of the woodwork regardless of Clinton. It is no different with Biden.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Matthew Battle‏ @librab103 May 6
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          Replying to @librab103 @mtracey

          Biden like Clinton have the Dem base on lock down, their problem are the fringe voters on the edge and indies who look more at policies than at party hence being indies!

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
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        2. Bananas  🍌 🍌 🍌‏ @Bananas_R_Silly May 6
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Hillary lost because of decades of Republicans laying the groundwork. Trump wasn’t some magically amazing candidate, people hate him. The only reason he won is because the GOP set the table so that people didn’t trust her more than they didn’t trust him. That’s it.

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        1. Skeeduu‏ @skeeduu May 6
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          Replying to @mtracey

          The democrats are cooked. It don’t matter who they through out there.

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        1. Cor_auri‏ @auri_cor May 6
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          Replying to @mtracey

          Michael the pre-Trump status quo is why we have the present Trump. Wage stagnation & declining since 70s is a myth to millennials who never experienced boom times. I don’t believe anyone on the D side can sustain/grow economy+fair bilat trade deals.

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