If the economy stays relatively "good," at least in the macro sense, I wouldn't underestimate the appeal of returning to the pre-Trump status quo in the Dem electorate. Yes, there's upheaval globally and in the US, but it can be counteracted by a nostalgic desire for "normalcy"
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In 2008, Bush was deeply unpopular after two terms and it was widely assumed that Dems were heavily favored no matter who they nominated. So voters were more willing to "take a chance" on a black guy whose middle name was "Hussein." Different set of incentives operative in 2020
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It's also weird that pundits are so hostile to voters determining their preferences on the basis of "electability" when they've been screaming since 2016 that Hillary lost because she was unelectable due to sexism and racism or whatever
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End of conversation
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Again, with the deep state counting the votes, a good economy means the incumbent wins.
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