If the economy stays relatively "good," at least in the macro sense, I wouldn't underestimate the appeal of returning to the pre-Trump status quo in the Dem electorate. Yes, there's upheaval globally and in the US, but it can be counteracted by a nostalgic desire for "normalcy"
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I still think Bernie is the likeliest nominee at this point, and there's a decent chance Biden implodes. But just wanted to lay out some potential countervailing factors that could make this race turn out much differently than lots of people assume
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Primaries during years when there's an incumbent to defeat incentivize a certain kind of "conservatism" among the Party electorate: hence the overwhelming focus on "electability." See: John Kerry in 2004. Everybody thought he had the best chance to beat Bush. Vietnam service, etc
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In 2008, Bush was deeply unpopular after two terms and it was widely assumed that Dems were heavily favored no matter who they nominated. So voters were more willing to "take a chance" on a black guy whose middle name was "Hussein." Different set of incentives operative in 2020
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It's also weird that pundits are so hostile to voters determining their preferences on the basis of "electability" when they've been screaming since 2016 that Hillary lost because she was unelectable due to sexism and racism or whatever
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End of conversation
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I feel the only hope for progressives would be to form a coalition of sorts...I support Tulsi, but in a primary does voting for Tulsi fracture the votes for Bernie, Warren,Yang, then leaving Biden as a winner with like 38% of the vote. If Bernie said Tulsi’s my VP, or Warren etc
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they are stuck in time with 0 self-awareness & major lack of inner reflection.but they have their 30% stalwarts.the 2020battle is 4 the middle which hates character assassination & actions to overthrow our system -- and anti-Semitism, clown behavior in venerated institutions, etc
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The Hillary maddow interview was cringe
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