If the economy stays relatively "good," at least in the macro sense, I wouldn't underestimate the appeal of returning to the pre-Trump status quo in the Dem electorate. Yes, there's upheaval globally and in the US, but it can be counteracted by a nostalgic desire for "normalcy"
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The programming on MSNBC roughly captures the sensibilities of "normie Dems." MSNBC has not been focusing on the structural inequities that gave rise to Trump. They've been focusing on Trump's character flaws, and Russia. These voters turned out big in 2018 and will again in 2020
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I still think Bernie is the likeliest nominee at this point, and there's a decent chance Biden implodes. But just wanted to lay out some potential countervailing factors that could make this race turn out much differently than lots of people assume
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Primaries during years when there's an incumbent to defeat incentivize a certain kind of "conservatism" among the Party electorate: hence the overwhelming focus on "electability." See: John Kerry in 2004. Everybody thought he had the best chance to beat Bush. Vietnam service, etc
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In 2008, Bush was deeply unpopular after two terms and it was widely assumed that Dems were heavily favored no matter who they nominated. So voters were more willing to "take a chance" on a black guy whose middle name was "Hussein." Different set of incentives operative in 2020
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It's also weird that pundits are so hostile to voters determining their preferences on the basis of "electability" when they've been screaming since 2016 that Hillary lost because she was unelectable due to sexism and racism or whatever
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As the phrase goes, the fundamentals are off. Economy will be front and center.
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The only disruption is a 3+% growth economy that Obama said was never returning. Short of a massive recession 2020 is going to be a blowout.
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Are you taking into account the insanity of the Dem party? Who will be left once this is all mainstream news (the spying etc)? I foresee more young, green AOC types getting put into office (elected is too strong a word). The commies are taking full advantage of Walk Away.
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You keep pretending there aren't millions of progressives who will reject Biden as theu did Hlllary in the 2016 general, and Biden doesn't have the fervent base she did. Until you factor in those realities, you're just erroneously stumping for Biden for some bizarre reason
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