If the economy stays relatively "good," at least in the macro sense, I wouldn't underestimate the appeal of returning to the pre-Trump status quo in the Dem electorate. Yes, there's upheaval globally and in the US, but it can be counteracted by a nostalgic desire for "normalcy"
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In general, there's a tendency for pundits to assume that every election cycle subsequent to 2016 will produce the same kind of "disruption" as was evident across the spectrum that year. Alternatively, it could've just been a unique aberration. "Good" economy would reinforce this
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The programming on MSNBC roughly captures the sensibilities of "normie Dems." MSNBC has not been focusing on the structural inequities that gave rise to Trump. They've been focusing on Trump's character flaws, and Russia. These voters turned out big in 2018 and will again in 2020
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I still think Bernie is the likeliest nominee at this point, and there's a decent chance Biden implodes. But just wanted to lay out some potential countervailing factors that could make this race turn out much differently than lots of people assume
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Primaries during years when there's an incumbent to defeat incentivize a certain kind of "conservatism" among the Party electorate: hence the overwhelming focus on "electability." See: John Kerry in 2004. Everybody thought he had the best chance to beat Bush. Vietnam service, etc
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In 2008, Bush was deeply unpopular after two terms and it was widely assumed that Dems were heavily favored no matter who they nominated. So voters were more willing to "take a chance" on a black guy whose middle name was "Hussein." Different set of incentives operative in 2020
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It's also weird that pundits are so hostile to voters determining their preferences on the basis of "electability" when they've been screaming since 2016 that Hillary lost because she was unelectable due to sexism and racism or whatever
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Seen this thinking proven wrong many times, including in 2016. Everybody tend to forecast some shift because of high turnout but so far high turnout is just more of the same split.
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I don’t like this theory only because I fear you are right. However, the “normie” Dems might shift to a candidate like Buttigieg, or Beto depending on debate performance. Progressives need massive turnout of the young who normally don’t involved in primaries. Get out the vote!
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Turnout is mostly a matter of who the candidates are. Voters turn out for candidates they like. They're less likely to bother when two people they don't like are running against each other.
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Every time they force “sweeping structural change” on a nation or culture, it translates into genocide of the poor. Why is anyone still in denial about this inevitably? Are we supposed to give them yet another chance to get a different utopian outcome? No! They are a death cult-
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2020 will answer the question of how many of those "normie" Dems still exist. Particularly in Great Lakes states, you have TONS of people who voted for Obama twice then voted for Trump.
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Have you seen Biden on the stump lately . He has a deteriorated performance level froma few years ago .
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"Relatively low" Democrats were caught kicking millions of voters off the rolls. Exit polls suggested rampant electronic voting machine hacking.
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