Also recall: turnout in the 2016 Dem primaries was relatively low, which augured Hillary's eventual defeat. It's likely to be much higher in 2020. And people turning out could disproportionately be "normie Dems" who like Biden and aren't interested in sweeping structural change
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In general, there's a tendency for pundits to assume that every election cycle subsequent to 2016 will produce the same kind of "disruption" as was evident across the spectrum that year. Alternatively, it could've just been a unique aberration. "Good" economy would reinforce this
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The programming on MSNBC roughly captures the sensibilities of "normie Dems." MSNBC has not been focusing on the structural inequities that gave rise to Trump. They've been focusing on Trump's character flaws, and Russia. These voters turned out big in 2018 and will again in 2020
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I still think Bernie is the likeliest nominee at this point, and there's a decent chance Biden implodes. But just wanted to lay out some potential countervailing factors that could make this race turn out much differently than lots of people assume
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Primaries during years when there's an incumbent to defeat incentivize a certain kind of "conservatism" among the Party electorate: hence the overwhelming focus on "electability." See: John Kerry in 2004. Everybody thought he had the best chance to beat Bush. Vietnam service, etc
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In 2008, Bush was deeply unpopular after two terms and it was widely assumed that Dems were heavily favored no matter who they nominated. So voters were more willing to "take a chance" on a black guy whose middle name was "Hussein." Different set of incentives operative in 2020
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It's also weird that pundits are so hostile to voters determining their preferences on the basis of "electability" when they've been screaming since 2016 that Hillary lost because she was unelectable due to sexism and racism or whatever
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There is nothing normal about the Democrat party
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"Normal": The state that led to where we are now.
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... and will do so again, if we go back to it.
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The Democrats are hopelessly fractured. Add that to the stream of indictments that will come out of the FISA investigation (there will be dozens) and Biden’s conflicts re his some Hunter in Ukraine and China, I think you get a progressive, but probably not the one you want.
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Many I know are
#YearningToBeBerningThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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This is exactly what I’m hearing from people... the yearning for when things were normal... almost like a transition back to normal and someone who has experienced normal (imperfect as it is) and is more centrist. Many WANT progressive change ... but see a need for an in-between.
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What’s something you’ve been wrong about?
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I'm anxious to find out what the left wing MAGA looks like
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This whole primary charade is a complete rigged sham election just like it was way back in ‘16. The chosen one probably will be Biden just it was Hillary last time around. No matter what the people want.
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If so, that would be a historic mistake for the US and the world. It should be apparent that you cannot go back in time. That was part of Trump's appeal: a magical thinking that we could go back to the '50s. You can't reverse time. You have to go through and out the other side.
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Basically, in no uncertain terms, post-Cold War economic globalization, without advances in emissions control, has resulted in a multidimensional environmental crisis that threatens civilization itself. In short time scales. This is what is before us today. Status quo murders us.
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