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mtracey's profile
Michael Tracey
Michael Tracey
Michael Tracey
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@mtracey

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Michael TraceyVerified account

@mtracey

Roving journalist, friend to all dogs mtracey@protonmail.com

NYC
patreon.com/mtracey
Joined March 2009

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    Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 6
    • Report Tweet

    If the economy stays relatively "good," at least in the macro sense, I wouldn't underestimate the appeal of returning to the pre-Trump status quo in the Dem electorate. Yes, there's upheaval globally and in the US, but it can be counteracted by a nostalgic desire for "normalcy"

    4:10 AM - 6 May 2019
    • 23 Retweets
    • 85 Likes
    • Peter Guevara is angry at twatter JNetofLouin 🐸KGB Asset Arbiter🥛👍 Pluto & Pat Connors Natasha Shawver The Bern Identity Rajesh Panday Malinka🔸Tanya P
    31 replies 23 retweets 85 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 6
        • Report Tweet

        Also recall: turnout in the 2016 Dem primaries was relatively low, which augured Hillary's eventual defeat. It's likely to be much higher in 2020. And people turning out could disproportionately be "normie Dems" who like Biden and aren't interested in sweeping structural change

        10 replies 11 retweets 45 likes
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      3. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 6
        • Report Tweet

        In general, there's a tendency for pundits to assume that every election cycle subsequent to 2016 will produce the same kind of "disruption" as was evident across the spectrum that year. Alternatively, it could've just been a unique aberration. "Good" economy would reinforce this

        6 replies 6 retweets 15 likes
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      4. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 6
        • Report Tweet

        The programming on MSNBC roughly captures the sensibilities of "normie Dems." MSNBC has not been focusing on the structural inequities that gave rise to Trump. They've been focusing on Trump's character flaws, and Russia. These voters turned out big in 2018 and will again in 2020

        5 replies 11 retweets 40 likes
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      5. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 6
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        I still think Bernie is the likeliest nominee at this point, and there's a decent chance Biden implodes. But just wanted to lay out some potential countervailing factors that could make this race turn out much differently than lots of people assume

        13 replies 9 retweets 43 likes
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      6. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 6
        • Report Tweet

        Primaries during years when there's an incumbent to defeat incentivize a certain kind of "conservatism" among the Party electorate: hence the overwhelming focus on "electability." See: John Kerry in 2004. Everybody thought he had the best chance to beat Bush. Vietnam service, etc

        3 replies 8 retweets 19 likes
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      7. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 6
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        In 2008, Bush was deeply unpopular after two terms and it was widely assumed that Dems were heavily favored no matter who they nominated. So voters were more willing to "take a chance" on a black guy whose middle name was "Hussein." Different set of incentives operative in 2020

        10 replies 10 retweets 38 likes
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      8. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey May 6
        • Report Tweet

        It's also weird that pundits are so hostile to voters determining their preferences on the basis of "electability" when they've been screaming since 2016 that Hillary lost because she was unelectable due to sexism and racism or whatever

        10 replies 18 retweets 59 likes
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      9. End of conversation
      1. Tim‏ @Goodfoodblimp May 6
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        There is nothing normal about the Democrat party

        0 replies 2 retweets 22 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2.  🕷️ 🌹 🦇Jake 🦇 🌹 🕷️ ("Russian Bot" since 2017)‏ @jake0149 May 6
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        "Normal": The state that led to where we are now.

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      3.  🕷️ 🌹 🦇Jake 🦇 🌹 🕷️ ("Russian Bot" since 2017)‏ @jake0149 May 6
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @jake0149 @mtracey

        ... and will do so again, if we go back to it.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Dinklebat‏ @Dinkeldash May 6
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        The Democrats are hopelessly fractured. Add that to the stream of indictments that will come out of the FISA investigation (there will be dozens) and Biden’s conflicts re his some Hunter in Ukraine and China, I think you get a progressive, but probably not the one you want.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Climate Clock  🇸🇴#IStandWithIlhan 🇵🇸‏ @Tav_assoli May 6
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        Climate Clock  🇸🇴#IStandWithIlhan 🇵🇸 Retweeted Climate Clock  🇸🇴#IStandWithIlhan 🇵🇸

        https://twitter.com/Tav_assoli/status/1125134905032228864 …

        Climate Clock  🇸🇴#IStandWithIlhan 🇵🇸 added,

        Climate Clock  🇸🇴#IStandWithIlhan 🇵🇸 @Tav_assoli
        KNOW THYSELF: If what you want is to defeat Trump and get back to "normal", you're a neoliberal centrist. If what you want is fundamental change and a power grab by the workers who drive the economy, you're a progressive and a leftist. Know thyself. #Bernie2020
        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. BooKap‏ @jukap May 6
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        Replying to @mtracey

        Many I know are #YearningToBeBerning

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Jennifer Merritt  🤷🏻‍♀️ 🤦🏻‍♀️ 👀‏ @MerrittJennifer May 6
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        This is exactly what I’m hearing from people... the yearning for when things were normal... almost like a transition back to normal and someone who has experienced normal (imperfect as it is) and is more centrist. Many WANT progressive change ... but see a need for an in-between.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. blake  🇺🇸‏ @BenoitDavies May 6
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        What’s something you’ve been wrong about?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Luke‏ @lateforapex May 6
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        Replying to @mtracey

        I'm anxious to find out what the left wing MAGA looks like

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Richard Barry‏ @rbarry39 May 6
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        Replying to @mtracey

        This whole primary charade is a complete rigged sham election just like it was way back in ‘16. The chosen one probably will be Biden just it was Hillary last time around. No matter what the people want.

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      1. New conversation
      2. David Alleyn‏ @AckKaero May 6
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @mtracey

        If so, that would be a historic mistake for the US and the world. It should be apparent that you cannot go back in time. That was part of Trump's appeal: a magical thinking that we could go back to the '50s. You can't reverse time. You have to go through and out the other side.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. David Alleyn‏ @AckKaero May 6
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @AckKaero @mtracey

        Basically, in no uncertain terms, post-Cold War economic globalization, without advances in emissions control, has resulted in a multidimensional environmental crisis that threatens civilization itself. In short time scales. This is what is before us today. Status quo murders us.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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