Also also putting Bernie on the same level as Beto is pretty gross.
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also harris, who is in 3rd place in her home state in a poll today, in tier 1a.
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Nate silver couldnt predict the likely hood that summer comes after spring much less sort candidates into tiers based on the likely hood of winning the nomination.
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But Nate has a scientific model... he swears.
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Bernie is the ONLY Democrat running who can beat Trump. It's going to come down to the rust belt states again, and he's the only Democrat who can appeal to those working class voters in PA, OH, IN, MI, & WI. Nate Silver STILL doesn't understand the electorate.
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The odds are his impressions of who gets the nomination, not who he thinks can beat trump.
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Opinions and polls are worthless. Just follow the actual odds from bookmakers with real money on the line... Odds to win the 2020 Democratic Party Presidential Nomination: Bernie Sanders+300 Kamala Harris+350 Joe Biden+400 Beto O’Rourke+450 Amy Klobuchar+1000
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Full odds to win the 2020 election... Donald Trump+175 Bernie Sanders+650 Kamala Harris+650 Joe Biden+650 Beto O’Rourke+900 Andrew Yang+2200 Pete Buttgieg+2800 Sherrod Brown+2800 Elizabeth Warren+3000 Amy Klobuchar+3300 Cory Booker+3300 Tulsi Gabbard+4000
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Nate Silver is like a smart person.
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Nate Silver got lucky twice. That's it.
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It may not be fair, but mainstream media seems to be backing Harris, Biden, and Buttigieg, not Bernie, Yang, Tulsi, etc. The odds kinda reflect that for all their other problems.
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There seems to be a media led effort to downplay or ignore Bernie as much as possible. 2016 all over again.
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Smoke filled back room...
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Nate should stick to sports prognostication.
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Same ole story
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You are also
#TeamTaleb?Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Whoever receives the most money from big donors will win. Why is this a surprise? The "establishment" candidates obviously have a better chance of winning...
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Based on Sentiment and Democratic Party machinations, I think his speculation is valid. I know you're in a circle that loves Bernie, but I don't see the same amount of fervor that he had in 2016. I was someone who supported him in '16, but I don't see him as the same candidate.
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