FWIW, my current thinking on the tiers in the Democratic primary, in terms of likelihood of winning the nomination. This is very rough, obviously: Tier 1a: Harris, Biden Tier 1b: Bernie, Beto, Buttigieg, Warren Tier 2: Booker, Klobuchar
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Where is Tulsi?
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Sanders numbers are not that good now
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He's first or second in every poll. And he's usually 2nd to a guy who is only delaying because he'll be eviscerated for his record and his creepiness. Sanders IS the frontrunner.
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Bernie has FULL name recongition. Considering that, I would argue Pete has a better shot at this point. Everyone has an opinion of Bernie by this stage.
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You always seem to show up with a hot garbage take. You’re quite good at them.
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From beyond the grave,
@mtracey has spoken.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Well, they do have significant overlap in supporters. But the Pete bubble will burst when people realize just how ridiculously small South Bend is.
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I’ve only seen that argument brought up by people acting in bad faith. It only takes about 2 minutes of listening to Pete to realize he absolutely has what it takes.
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I don't think Sanders has a chance in hell. Almost 100% name recognition, running in the same exact platform & polling at an average of abt 22%? That's not good. Neither is Biden's %. Leaves a lot of room for those just behind them who aren't well known.
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"just behind" are at best polling 3-6% In a field of 18. 22% in a field of 18 is high.
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Pete should definitely be ahead of Sanders.
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I know it's crazy... but I think Nate's dead on. Doesn't make sense at first but in terms of who is more likely to win the nomination, he's right
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Yeah seriously, it’s almost insulting how bad that is.
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Pete bridges the gap, est dems see Bernie as too far out
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Agreed. Bernie should be at least 1 tier lower.
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When you're Nate Silver, you make the data work for you.
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I'm trying to figure out why your opinion of this matter is of any value.
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Exactly. Bernie should be moved lower.
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I agree with Nate.
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