According to @ElectProject data, turnout for the 2018 midterms is the highest since 1912, which is just an incredible shift considering turnout for the 2014 midterms had been the *lowest* since World War II. The volatility of the electorate right now cannot be underestimated.
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Replying to @mtracey
2014 was an aberration because the Senate map and the competitive governor races left the largest states without competitive top of the ticket races that drive turnout. Don't know how many times I had to debunk idea 2014 was part of a larger decline in civic engagement
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Replying to @ElectProject
Aren't there potentially "aberrational" qualities to every midterm cycle? Example: there was no GOP senate candidate in CA this year, which may have depressed turnout somewhat. Fact remains that 2014 was a significant ebb.
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Replying to @mtracey
States without Senate elections in 2014 included: CA, FL, NY, PA & OH. Senate elections in these states would have likely have put the 2014 national midterm turnout rate at the average for the past three decades
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Replying to @ElectProject
So what’s your basic contention? That the “lowest turnout since WWII” descriptor is analytically useless?
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Replying to @mtracey
I'm reacting to your characterization of volatility. There is a reason why 2014 had such an unusually low turnout rate
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Replying to @ElectProject
WV had competitive senate races in both 2014 and 2018, yet its turnout increased by ~11% -- which I think supports a case for wider electoral volatility. But your qualification is noted
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Replying to @mtracey
No doubt turnout went up in 2018 (I should know!). I just recoil at the comparison of 2014 to 1942 since I had to explain many times it did not presage low turnout in 2016
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Yes, I never took 2014 to presage low turnout in 2016, but can understand how you'd be extra vigilant about dispelling related misconceptions
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