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mtracey's profile
Michael Tracey
Michael Tracey
Michael Tracey
Verified account
@mtracey

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Michael TraceyVerified account

@mtracey

Roving journalist, friend to all dogs mtracey@protonmail.com

NYC
patreon.com/mtracey
Joined March 2009

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    1. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 12 Nov 2018
      • Report Tweet

      According to @ElectProject data, turnout for the 2018 midterms is the highest since 1912, which is just an incredible shift considering turnout for the 2014 midterms had been the *lowest* since World War II. The volatility of the electorate right now cannot be underestimated.

      18 replies 48 retweets 133 likes
    2. Michael McDonald‏ @ElectProject 12 Nov 2018
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @mtracey

      2014 was an aberration because the Senate map and the competitive governor races left the largest states without competitive top of the ticket races that drive turnout. Don't know how many times I had to debunk idea 2014 was part of a larger decline in civic engagement

      1 reply 1 retweet 12 likes
    3. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 12 Nov 2018
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @ElectProject

      Aren't there potentially "aberrational" qualities to every midterm cycle? Example: there was no GOP senate candidate in CA this year, which may have depressed turnout somewhat. Fact remains that 2014 was a significant ebb.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Michael McDonald‏ @ElectProject 12 Nov 2018
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @mtracey

      States without Senate elections in 2014 included: CA, FL, NY, PA & OH. Senate elections in these states would have likely have put the 2014 national midterm turnout rate at the average for the past three decades

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    5. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 12 Nov 2018
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @ElectProject

      So what’s your basic contention? That the “lowest turnout since WWII” descriptor is analytically useless?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Michael McDonald‏ @ElectProject 12 Nov 2018
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @mtracey

      I'm reacting to your characterization of volatility. There is a reason why 2014 had such an unusually low turnout rate

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 12 Nov 2018
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      Replying to @ElectProject

      WV had competitive senate races in both 2014 and 2018, yet its turnout increased by ~11% -- which I think supports a case for wider electoral volatility. But your qualification is noted

      5:14 PM - 12 Nov 2018
      • 1 Like
      • William Zelin
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Michael McDonald‏ @ElectProject 12 Nov 2018
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @mtracey

          No doubt turnout went up in 2018 (I should know!). I just recoil at the comparison of 2014 to 1942 since I had to explain many times it did not presage low turnout in 2016

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Michael Tracey‏Verified account @mtracey 12 Nov 2018
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @ElectProject

          Yes, I never took 2014 to presage low turnout in 2016, but can understand how you'd be extra vigilant about dispelling related misconceptions

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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