I agree with @NateSilver538 that an electoral-college strategy build around MI, WI, PA in 2020 is looking very viable after Tues. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-2018-map-looked-a-lot-like-2012-and-that-got-me-thinking-about-2020/ … But I'd add a word of caution. (Thread)
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2) In a nutshell: It’s still likely to be pretty damn close in those states. Nothing suggesting a blue wall—that’s very much the wrong metaphor. I’d say more like a very slight Dem skew. (The second map Nate posits, not the first.)pic.twitter.com/Pv7ZoDTjaS
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3) Here’s why: As I mentioned in my previous Michigan thread, Dems did very well on Tuesday with two groups: They ran up the score with affluent women, and they limited their losses among working-class whites.
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4) Overall, Dems improved their performance among college-educated white women by 20 points on Tuesday (from a 6-point win in 2016 to a 26-point win on Tues).
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5) They improved their performance among non-college grad whites by 19 points on Tues (losing by 31 in 2016, but only by 12 on Tuesday).
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6) But there are a few problems here for Dems when you look to 2020.
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7) State Republicans are pretty unpopular among white working-class voters in Michigan. They’ve been very anti-union. They taxed pensions. They used a procedural trick to try to undermine a min-wage increase. They’ve allowed the roads to deteriorate badly.https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/16/us/politics/michigan-democrats-labor-unions-trump.html …
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8) Trump, so far as I could tell in my reporting, is still semi-popular among a lot of white working class folks, who really like his tariffs, his China-bashing, his renegotiation of NAFTA.
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9) Which is to say, it’s possible that, in Michigan, voters weren’t rejecting Trump on Tues; they were rejecting state Republicans. (Same goes for Wisconsin, where Scott Walker was obviously a highly divisive figure.)
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10) True, Trump’s approval rating in Michigan’s exit poll on Tues was only 44 percent, pretty much what the GOP’s gov candidate got. But that could be as much a case of the state GOP dragging him down as vice versa.
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What exit poll are you using here?
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