Not quite, because many of the reasons gigantic opportunities aren't immediately fully funded is because implementation takes time and at any given time, room for funding may be limited, especially for the highest impact items. So the portfolio will have uneven returns.
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If we take the time-lag model seriously and assume the billionaires will fill the funding gaps then funding any of these projects is the same as giving the money to the smart billionaires, right? It's all fungible.
(Not that I buy this model, but if I did.)
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Sure - which is why finding local and/or smaller high leverage opportunities is particularly valuable.
For example, it's not worth the overhead for OpenPhil to buy a grad student working on important things a new laptop to replace their 5-year old machine, but I can do so.
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Setting aside "smaller" as an alpha opp, I find "local" really surprising. You've already suggested the big EAs aren't finding *all* the possible opps (just the big ones), so why would you assume the next best on the margin overcomes the base wealth gap?
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To take David's example, why focus on upgrading the laptop of an American grad student vs. giving one in another country their first computer of any quality?
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(taking into account it's probably really giving 10 of them their first computer instead of upgrading just 1 American)
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Presumably in part because identifying someone in particular you know is working on important (and positive) things and is capable of meaningful progress is a huge advantage (plus zero overhead of any kind, you know what you're getting, etc)?
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You are buying a fundamentally different good when you upgrade a particular local thing you know in a way you know they need, versus spending on something to spend on something elsewhere in ways you can't be confident match local conditions/needs, or what effect it will have, etc
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Something something Hayek, something something socialist calculation debate, something something...
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Do you really know they need it and what effect it will have? Maybe their program would pay for it if they ask, or their parents. Maybe their current computer isn't performing bc of malware. Most people don't need to upgrade 5-yr old computers.
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I accept you have better knowledge vs. the person abroad, but is it 10X better? (And send the person abroad cash if you're uncertain about needs, rather than a specific thing)
If the local thing has indirect or snowballing consequences then it could easily be 10x better. "It works" is a powerful multiplier.
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Assuming we are choosing wisely, I notice I am confused how we could not know this. Graduate work in things that actually matter, by people who have talent and drive, seems much more than 10x expected value of a random graduate student (accepting the 10:1 premise ad argumento).
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(Which points out the assumption there, that the only difference in productivity of locals to me vs. those without resources to buy a laptop comes mostly or entirely from a lack of financial assets, which seems very wrong to me?)
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Dustin, your organization OpenPhil runs the EA Long Term Future Fund which has granted millions of dollars to EA-affiliated individual people for things like funding their grad school, writing fiction, developing random apps, “upskilling” etc. Isn’t that exactly the same thing?
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Well it’s another institution for identifying outstanding giving opps so it comes with the cons zvi wanted to avoid, including diligence overhead. I didn’t mean to imply it was never worthwhile to give domestically. (We additionally pay for many salaries at OP and Givewell)
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