The new @Davos Global Risks 2020 is filled with profound yet vague predictions. Let's offer some @superforecaster rigor. What's the implied probability of:
"More common extreme weather events could make insurance unaffordable or simply unavailable." (p. 32)
@PTetlock @dgardner
Needs end date, spatial limits, a definition of what type of insurance (does state-provided catastrophic insurance count when no commercial insurance is available?), and some sort of definition of unaffordable. Commercial ins. already difficult in some places
16:14 - 20. sij 2020.
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