The growth rate may look good. The year-on-year won't.
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This
: Even if job creation happened three times faster than after the Great Recession, it will take three years to get back to the level before this pandemic started. It is crazy to think economic activity snaps back to normal instantaneously just because it disappeared fast. -
There’s only one crazy guy muttering “bounce back bigly” and you know who that is. Entire industries have been crushed- restaurants, airlines, autos, state & local governments, I could go on & on. You could “open up” tomorrow, but you won’t attract customers for a long, long time
End of conversation
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Made harder by how percentages work - a 30% drop followed by a 30% gain still leaves you 9% down from where you started (0.7*1.3 =0.91).
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We’ll also have record job growth later this year, maybe several months in a row of 1+ million jobs. And that will still leave us in a massive hole.
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We need GDP and employment statistics with reference to some level (year ago, pre-crisis trends, pre-crisis levels,...). Quarterly growth rates (even worse annualized quarterly growth rates) are meaningless in this crisis.
End of conversation
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Innumeracy is our jam.
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