"Economic assessments of the potential future risks of climate change have been omitting or grossly underestimating many of the most serious consequences for lives and livelihoods because these risks are difficult to quantify precisely and lie outside of human experience."
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"Scientists are growing in confidence about the evidence for the largest potential impacts of climate change and the rising probability that major thresholds in the Earth’s climate system will be breached as global mean surface temperature rises... These impacts include:"
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"Destabilisation of ice sheets and glaciers and consequent sea level rise Stronger tropical cyclones Extreme heat impacts More frequent and intense floods and droughts Disruptions to oceanic and atmospheric circulation Destruction of biodiversity and collapse of ecosystems"
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"Many of these impacts will grow and occur concurrently across the world as global temperature climbs. Some of these impacts involve thresholds in the climate system beyond which major impacts accelerate, or become irreversible and unstoppable."
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"When a threshold is breached, it might cause one or more other thresholds to be exceeded as well, leading to a cascade of impacts."
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****Many of these impacts could exceed the capacity of human populations to adapt, and would significantly affect and disrupt the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions, if not billions, of people worldwide.*****
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********Economic assessments fail to take account of the potential for large concurrent impacts across the world that would cause mass migration, displacement and conflict, with huge loss of life.**************
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**Economic assessments that are expressed solely in terms of effects on output (e.g. gross domestic product), or that only extrapolate from past experience, or that use inappropriate discounting, do not provide a clear indication of the potential risks to lives and livelihoods.**
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Compare climate science and cost of climate economics. * science: after 1.5 °C its unclear how we could control the phenomena, after 2 °C parts of the world become inhabitable&unfarmable * economists: the damages are 2.1% of global income at a 3 °C warming, and 8.5% at a 6 °C.
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These have different timespans for sure, but it does to take an expert to understand that desertification of southern Europe, for example, will mean closer to 100% than 3-8.5% GDP damage for the region.
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Now unfortunately the insanely wrong climate change cost estimations have lead to an idea, that we should minimize the climate actions, introduce them gradually, etc. Rather than understanding that there is no point in going too near the cliff, as we don't know where it is.
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Having the courage to understand that, would mean climate policies are quite different. It is all about scale. We are not on a slope, it's a cliff.
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The current economistic view: least possible amount of investment and cost now, since we only loose some percents anyway in the future that in itself is uncertain.
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The realist or "sciencific" view: we must do anything within our control to make sure humanity does not get pushed over the cliff.
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