With the current pace of development in AI and as demos turn into full featured products and services, I can see the overall US GDP growth rising from recent avg 2-3% to 20+% in 10 years
This is a seismic shift, which is really hard to think and reason about 😳
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First of all, this is amazing news for people who have been disappointed in rate of growth in the world today like , , .
OTOH, it is so massive I'm not sure if the system is ready to absorb the rapid growth without going off the rails
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In particular, the kind of growth I predict (say 20%) is unprecedented in US history. In other countries, such as modern China, there has been short period of this kind of growth but this has a good chance of being both bigger and longer.
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Can for example, the financial system and the federal reserve handle such high rate of real GDP growth? What about the political system? We should expect this rapid growth to be not equally distributed in the population even though everyone should benefit.
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What I'm curious to see is what history can teach us regarding countries and societies going through similar level of economic expansion. How did things turn out for them? Are there lessons?
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BTW the reason I expect such rapid rate of growth is that I expect almost every single tool we currently use to be replaced with better AI native products.
Not AI infused, but AI native.
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The current advances we are seeing with Image Synthesis and LLMs are just the beginning. And most of the refinements needed to make them into reliable products haven't been done yet.
And they will be done, people have started working on it.
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GitHub Copilot (building on 's Codex) was the first killer apps of these modern wave. There will be many more. Money and talent is pouring in: Inflection, Adept, Iso Labs, Stability, etc. will be pursuing these apps and have a ton of funding.
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I won't comment on OpenAI's ambitions, my opinion is its impact is likely to be larger than any of the above efforts!
But it's not a competition, there are lots of different wonderful things to be built and a huge pie to go around
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My biggest hope and concern is that we can bring about these amazing changes without paying dearly in financial & political chaos.
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Some people question the exact numbers here. Here is my response.
Note that for purposes of what will happen to the economy/financial system and preparedness, it’s better to think about the most extreme situation.
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Replying to @arxivmerchant
I didn’t put much effort into calibrating the numbers. Lowest end is 7-8% GDP growth in 15 years imo. I feel very confident of that. Basically no unknown unknown type progress needs to happen for that.
I think that’s still huge due to compounding but not as seismic.
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This is a great tweetstorm inspired by the current one that tries to do a critical analysis and challenges my projected 7-8% to 20% GDP growth per year.
I’m excited to read it and see if it updates me 🤩
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@mobav0 mentions China grew at 7+% a year, which is true but likely not much higher. Even though on paper China has grown 10+% a year a lot of this is inflated CCP reporting. The reason China was growing so fast was because there low initial GDP per capita unlike the US 2/n
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