BREAKING: Democrat Elissa Slotkin wins reelection to U.S. House in Michigan's 7th Congressional District. #APracecall at 3:08 a.m. EST.
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Mark Murray
@mmurraypolitics
Mark Murray is the senior political editor for NBC News, as well as diehard Texas Longhorn fan.
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FIRST READ: Brace yourselves for an Election Week, not Election Day.
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Final pre-election will be released Wed. Nov 2, 12:15pm Central. Results posted to web at 1:15.
Details here:
marquette.edu/news-center/20
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Brace yourselves for another Election Week -- not just Election Day
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🚨 RATINGS CHANGE🚨
#AZSen moves back to Toss Up from Lean D after a spate of tightening private polling has alarmed Dems.
The overall environment in AZ boosting GOPers, even weaker candidates like Masters
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Fetterman on stage in Pittsburgh: “To be honest, doing that debate wasn't exactly easy, you know.”
“We still love you!” someone in the crowd yells.
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"This race was trending toward victory. Now, it’s anyone’s guess what happens," Dem strategist Chris Kofinis says.
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Fascinatingly, all six of the races that have moved in Republicans' direction this week are in states Biden carried in 2020, whereas all four races moving towards Democrats are located in states Donald Trump carried in both 2016 and 2020.
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NEW : 10 House rating changes this week, including four Dem incumbents from Lean D to Toss Up and two - #AKAL Mary Peltola (D) and #KS03 Sharice Davids (D) - from Toss Up to Lean D. Full analysis: cookpolitical.com/analysis/house
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FIRST READ: Just a third of voters say they trust their president and member of Congress, according to the latest poll.
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The NBC News poll tested 8 different candidate issue positions.
The least popular? Believing Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election nbcnews.com/meet-the-press
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Really feels like things are swinging back to GOP.
Another datapoint: The DCCC chair is in danger, with his race now a tossup, per . cookpolitical.com/analysis/house
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Our latest NBC News poll finds that Democrats *are* fired up.
It’s just that Republicans are fired up *a lot* more -- reminding us of what played out in Virginia a year ago nbcnews.com/meet-the-press
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Our latest NBC News poll finds that Democrats *are* fired up.
It’s just that Republicans are fired up *a lot* more -- reminding us of what played out in Virginia a year ago nbcnews.com/meet-the-press
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House rating change: Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D) moves from Lean D to Toss Up at as Dems admit the DCCC chair is now in serious danger in #NY17. Full analysis: cookpolitical.com/analysis/house
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'Anger on their minds': NBC News poll finds sky-high interest and polarization ahead of midterms
:
nbcnews.com/meet-the-press via
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Here's our writeup of the poll, as well as a PDF of the filled-in survey.
Oct 14-18, 1,000 reg voters, +/- 3.1%
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5. President Biden's approval rating remains steady.
--45% approve (unchanged from Sept)
--52% disapprove (unchanged)
That rating is consistent where Obama's (45%) and Trump's (46%) were at this same point in time when their party suffered midterm losses.
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4. Congressional preference remains close.
Among registered voters, 47% prefer a Dem-controlled Congress, vs. 46% who prefer a GOP-controlled Congress (was tied 46%-46% a month ago).
Among likely voters, it's 48% GOP, 47% Dem.
This is first time our poll has measured LVs
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3. Two-thirds of Republicans and Democrats would still vote for a candidate from their own side who had a moral failure in their business, marriage or personal life.
67% of reliable GOPers and 63% of reliable Dems would still vote for that candidate.
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2. Political polarization is off the charts.
81% of Democratic voters and 79% of Republican voters believe the political opposition poses a threat that, if not stopped, will destroy America as we know it.
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Headlines from new national NBC News poll.
1. Election interest is at an all-time for a midterm, with 70% of reg. voters expressing high interest (was 65% in Oct 2018)
But Republicans have regained the enthusiasm edge -- with 78% of GOPers having high interest vs. 69% of Dems
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The latest national NBC News poll gets released beginning at 9:00 am ET.
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Experts believe that level of youth participation will carry over to November’s midterms, with polls showing voters aged 18-29 are almost as enthusiastic as they were in 2018. -
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FIRST READ: Britain and the United States still haven’t recovered politically from two events that were just months apart — Brexit and the 2016 presidential election.
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Our team at the federal court says Steve Bannon has been sentenced to four months in prison and a $6,500 fine but the sentence will be STAYED PENDING APPEAL
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Jill Biden says “understands govt better than anybody else” when asked about 2024 run, which an aide says & family “fully support” + new info on her role & views on possible GOP investigations into her son Hunter w/
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Longtime Bidenologists know is key to 2024. Mindful of FEC, she tells & I she still thinks he "understands government better than anybody else."
Adviser: '24 bid "is something both Dr. Biden and the family fully support"
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FIRST READ: High gas prices have been a problem for President Biden and Democratic candidates, but that's not the only economic challenge they face.
A new poll finds deep economic pessimism ahead of November's midterm elections.
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From the debate issue on down, a big reason why I think there could be a Kelly -Lake outcome is because Hobbs has not been a great candidates and has missteps like these
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"...a departure from normal protocol when media is invited to view interviews or debates at Arizona PBS."
"Hobbs' spokeswoman said Hobbs had to get to her next event and couldn't take questions. Asked what that event was, [she] did not respond."
azcentral.com/story/news/pol
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FIRST READ: Back to the fundamentals?
In the past few weeks, the 2022 environment has seemed a bit more normal, like a typical midterm election.
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The most expensive midterm race in the country doesn't even feature candidates.
California's Proposition 27, a question about legalizing sports betting in the state, has spurred over $215 million in ad spending so far this cycle.
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First on : The DSCC is launching a new ad in Pennsylvania, targeting Oz on abortion nbcnews.com/meet-the-press #PASEN
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FIRST READ: For the most part, politicians and candidates — left or right — aren’t popular with the American electorate.
That broad unpopularity helps explain why this midterm cycle is different.
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Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) voted early on Monday and dialed up his criticism of Republican challenger and former football star Herschel Walker.
Via
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GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley leads by just three points in the new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll.
For the first time in the history of the poll (more than 15 years), Grassley’s job approval is underwater, with 44% approving of his job performance.
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Trump Organization charged Secret Service as much as $1,185 per night to stay at Trump property, more than five times the recommended government rate, according to an investigation by House Committee on Oversight and Reform.
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First in First Read: Senate Majority PAC is spending an additional $5 million in #PASEN, bringing its investment so far in the race to $42 million
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NBC's Kristen Welker went one-on-one with Herschel Walker, and Welker presented the GA-SEN Republican with a copy of the $700 check his ex-girlfriend alleges was used to reimburse her for the abortion she had nbcnews.com/meet-the-press
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