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mlipsitch's profile
Marc Lipsitch
Marc Lipsitch
Marc Lipsitch
Verified account
@mlipsitch

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Marc LipsitchVerified account

@mlipsitch

Infectious disease epidemiologist and microbiologist, aspirational barista. mlipsitc@hsph.harvard.edu Director @CCDD_HSPH Tweets in personal capacity.

Boston, MA
hsph.harvard.edu/faculty/marc-l…
Joined September 2009

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    1. Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch 15 Dec 2020

      Marc Lipsitch Retweeted NPR

      There is a big if to this. Works if the vaccines strongly block infection/infectiousness/transmission like measles and mumps vaccines. Won't work if vax effects mainly on illness, with more modest effects on transmission, like pneumococcal and acellular pertussis vaccines.https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1338915253892083714 …

      Marc Lipsitch added,

      NPRVerified account @NPR
      Dr. Anthony Fauci predicts the U.S. could begin to achieve early stages of herd immunity against the coronavirus by late spring or summer. And if that happens, he anticipates, "we could really turn this thing around" toward the end of 2021. https://trib.al/mFoeWud 
      52 replies 260 retweets 1,056 likes
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      Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch 15 Dec 2020

      Another "path to victory" which in my current opinion is more promising is to achieve high, disease-blocking coverage in the high-mortality subgroups (age and comorbidity) so that continued circulation of the virus is a significantly lesser threat to life and health care systems.

      11:05 AM - 15 Dec 2020
      • 46 Retweets
      • 298 Likes
      • Carlo Dallapiccola Isaac Bogoch Proud European from Austria🇪🇺🇦🇹 🌏 Sarah Zhang Janma hannah Coco Gorilla thiischriis Newman Nahas
      25 replies 46 retweets 298 likes
        1. obadiah youngblood‏ @obadiahyoungbl1 15 Dec 2020
          Replying to @mlipsitch

          I imagine you need more than 240 characters to explain all this.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. Tim “Incentives Matter” Liptrot‏ @TimothyLiptrot 15 Dec 2020
          Replying to @mlipsitch

          My jurisdiction (DC) has put medical staff ahead of over-65's, but we have so few over-65's that they could be vaccinated much sooner than essential workers. Will this allocation increase deaths in expectation relative to old (highest risk) first? Do any models exist on this?pic.twitter.com/g4yE2jmNvu

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Ian‏ @IanStockport 15 Dec 2020
          Replying to @TimothyLiptrot @mlipsitch

          Partly having lots of people in the same location makes it easyer to cope with the practical issues of a vaccine that is so sensitive to being moved once above -70c.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2.  🌱 Jens-Petter Salvesen  🌍‏ @jpsalvesen 15 Dec 2020
          Replying to @mlipsitch

          Sweden generally doesn't admit patients from care homes into hospitals - yet their hospitals are filled. Median age of hospital admission is about 60. And how well is "Long Covid" understood?

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. Ian‏ @IanStockport 15 Dec 2020
          Replying to @mlipsitch

          Regularly mass testing can be used to reduce transmission levels in setting like schools, universities and large employers.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Dr Rob Whitehurst‏ @OYCar 15 Dec 2020
          Replying to @mlipsitch

          A more feasible scenario less dependent on external factors. But there is a problem with the next risk group. Reduced deaths equals reduced NPIs. Could leave those in their 50s and 60s at elevated risk if unvaccinated. So need near universal program anyway.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. Zoë McLaren, PhD‏ @ZoeMcLaren 15 Dec 2020
          Replying to @mlipsitch

          If we use vaccines to protect high risk groups then relying on rapid screening tests to slow transmission would work well. Much lower risk to missing small number of cases. And can suppress virus much sooner than reaching herd immunity.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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