There is a big if to this. Works if the vaccines strongly block infection/infectiousness/transmission like measles and mumps vaccines. Won't work if vax effects mainly on illness, with more modest effects on transmission, like pneumococcal and acellular pertussis vaccines.https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1338915253892083714 …
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I imagine you need more than 240 characters to explain all this.
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My jurisdiction (DC) has put medical staff ahead of over-65's, but we have so few over-65's that they could be vaccinated much sooner than essential workers. Will this allocation increase deaths in expectation relative to old (highest risk) first? Do any models exist on this?pic.twitter.com/g4yE2jmNvu
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Partly having lots of people in the same location makes it easyer to cope with the practical issues of a vaccine that is so sensitive to being moved once above -70c.
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Sweden generally doesn't admit patients from care homes into hospitals - yet their hospitals are filled. Median age of hospital admission is about 60. And how well is "Long Covid" understood?
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Regularly mass testing can be used to reduce transmission levels in setting like schools, universities and large employers.
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A more feasible scenario less dependent on external factors. But there is a problem with the next risk group. Reduced deaths equals reduced NPIs. Could leave those in their 50s and 60s at elevated risk if unvaccinated. So need near universal program anyway.
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If we use vaccines to protect high risk groups then relying on rapid screening tests to slow transmission would work well. Much lower risk to missing small number of cases. And can suppress virus much sooner than reaching herd immunity.
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