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mlipsitch's profile
Marc Lipsitch
Marc Lipsitch
Marc Lipsitch
Verified account
@mlipsitch

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Marc LipsitchVerified account

@mlipsitch

Infectious disease epidemiologist and microbiologist, aspirational barista. mlipsitc@hsph.harvard.edu Director @CCDD_HSPH Tweets in personal capacity.

Boston, MA
hsph.harvard.edu/faculty/marc-l…
Joined September 2009

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    1. Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch 26 Mar 2020

      3) We have never accomplished contact tracing on the scale that will be necessary -- and again, to keep cases low, we will have to accomplish that everywhere, not just some places.

      24 replies 568 retweets 3,269 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch 26 Mar 2020

      4) If we manage all of that, there will still be a world of COVID-19 transmission throwing sparks back at us. Like China today https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-toll/mainland-china-reports-drop-in-new-imported-coronavirus-cases-no-local-transmissions-idUSKBN21C01A … we will be in a long-term effort to prevent these sparks from starting new chains of transmission.

      10 replies 467 retweets 2,563 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch 26 Mar 2020

      The sparks from abroad won't be stopped by detection at the border; we don't do that too well as we showed empirically https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0250_article … and others @cmmid_lshtm showed theoretically https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.5.2000080 …

      19 replies 326 retweets 2,263 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch 26 Mar 2020

      So the scenario Dr. Birx is "assuring" us about is one in which we somehow escape Italy's problem of overloaded healthcare system despite the fact that social distancing is not really happening in large parts of the UShttps://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard …

      52 replies 1,064 retweets 3,969 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch 26 Mar 2020

      That is unlikely. Then the rosy scenario assumes we get to minimal numbers of cases everywhere, develop and maintain testing and tracing capacity, execute well on it, don't miss imported cases that spark new chains of transmission, and somehow maintain this delicate balance...

      16 replies 457 retweets 2,677 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch 26 Mar 2020

      For the 12-18 months (best case under current models) till a vaccine. I desperately hope she is right, because much suffering will be avoided. But reassurance that this is likely, or even plausible, with the disorganized track record of the US response, is false reassurance.

      27 replies 759 retweets 4,092 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch 26 Mar 2020

      We should work our hardest to create the conditions to make the scenarios being described here (one bad wave, contained by social distancing, and we're down to a point of controllable spread) a reality. Doing so will make us better prepared, even if they don't come to pass.

      12 replies 349 retweets 2,378 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch 26 Mar 2020

      But it would be extremely naive to imagine that they are likely, and what do I know, but it seems like bad politics to "assure" the American people that they will come to pass when so many things could go wrong, any one of which leads to much worse outcomes.

      13 replies 385 retweets 2,557 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch 26 Mar 2020

      On a simpler level, saying that "facts on the ground" are not consistent with 20% of the population getting infected is really quite deceptive. Likely, no population has 20% yet infected (though we can't be completely sure until serologic testing is widespread).

      24 replies 508 retweets 2,786 likes
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    10. Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch 26 Mar 2020

      But this virus has shown in countries around the world that it can spread rapidly, and a small problem can become a big problem -- that is how exponential growth works.

      10 replies 374 retweets 2,474 likes
      Show this thread
      Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch 26 Mar 2020

      It is a fundamental scientific error to take the current success of containment in some places as a sign that permanent containment is possible. We should work to make it possible, but 1918 flu and, frankly, the germ theory of disease show that containment is a temporary victory

      6:56 PM - 26 Mar 2020
      • 1,200 Retweets
      • 4,978 Likes
      • It’s Morning In America🇺🇸🌊#BidenHarris🌊🗽 Johnson Whitney Mack 🟠#NativesVote #NAVRA 2021 #StopTMX 🧡🖖🏽💚🌱🌲🪶 モーリー🐰 山口貴士 aka無駄に感じが悪いヤマベン Pablo Fuentes Juan Pérez Torralbo カエル
      82 replies 1,200 retweets 4,978 likes
        1. Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch 26 Mar 2020

          @threadreaderapp unroll

          59 replies 133 retweets 863 likes
          Show this thread
          Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
          Undo
        1. New conversation
        2. Pandora Speaks‏ @PandoraMaySpeak 26 Mar 2020
          Replying to @mlipsitch

          Can we interrupt the spread? By getting strategic with resources. What if we put a mask on every grocery store worker???? Will stop wide asymptomatic spread to the general public. It started in a market, let’s #ProtectAchillesHeel

          2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. Don Syme‏ @dsymetweets 27 Mar 2020
          Replying to @PandoraMaySpeak @mlipsitch

          You should literally put a mask on everyone

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. ֍ Đʀ Ȼħάѻѕ ֎‏ @iam_dr_cha0s 26 Mar 2020
          Replying to @mlipsitch

          That was very diplomatic. Dr. Birx's scenario is preposterously unlikely.

          1 reply 1 retweet 21 likes
        3. Alfie‏ @WndlB 26 Mar 2020
          Replying to @iam_dr_cha0s @mlipsitch

          Prof Lipsitch is too polite, but it was more #HappyTalk for the boss

          0 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Alfie‏ @WndlB 26 Mar 2020
          Replying to @mlipsitch

          Thanks for your work. @threadreaderapp pls unroll

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Thread Reader App‏ @threadreaderapp 26 Mar 2020
          Replying to @WndlB

          @allenpg @bomber9996 @UntilWeFixThis @PaulaRettig77 @radumanolescu @mlipsitch @20100thibault @WndlB Here’s your unroll:https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1243347447537115136 …

          0 replies 10 retweets 11 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. 29TRILLION‏ @29TRILLION 26 Mar 2020
          Replying to @mlipsitch

          @readwiseio save thread

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Readwise‏ @readwiseio 26 Mar 2020
          Replying to @29TRILLION

          Done! We've saved this whole thread to your Readwise library so that you can revisit/remember it 🧠📚

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
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        2. Tangul Bei (cranky old man)‏ @Tangul_Bei 26 Mar 2020
          Replying to @wasangeleser @mlipsitch

          Oh yes.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. End of conversation

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