Michael Levitt

@MLevitt_NP2013

Stanford Prof. of Biophysics, Cambridge PhD and DSc, 2013 Chemistry Nobel Laureate (complex systems), FRS & US National Academy member, I code well for my age.

United States
med.stanford.edu/levitt.html
Joined September 2016
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  1. Pinned Tweet
    Jul 4

    Crazy idea based on “2nd wave” New Deaths over 5 days divided by New Cases over same 5 days. The ratio is tiny (<1%) in Dallas & Harris TX & even lower in Israel. Could COVID be infectious in summer but with a much lower lethality? Are we now becoming immune with much less death?

    171 replies 314 retweets 1,207 likes
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  2. 4 hours ago

    No, I do not think that would have been possible nor is it a good idea. COVID19 will come back the haunt Austria and Norway just like it has Croatia and Israel.

    Replying to @MLevitt_NP2013
    Could've saturated at close to zero excess deaths like Austria, Norway, China or Korea. Let's keep that in mind.
    8 replies 19 retweets 119 likes
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  3. 9 hours ago

    Thanks so much. Total population and totally annual natural deaths very similar to EuroMOMO area. Right now there are overall 414 reported deaths/million in US. If same as Europe, US about 80% complete. Certainly hope this is true and US saturates at no more than 170,000 deaths.

    Replying to @czr111 @MLevitt_NP2013
    Worldometer has it for every state in US and every country
    27 replies 62 retweets 193 likes
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  4. 12 hours ago

    A remarkably detailed graphics. Where is it from. Are there others like it for other locations?

    Replying to @MLevitt_NP2013
    Here's a map of cases by "event" date & avg age in Florida. Bars at the top denote cases by earliest known event date. Dots below represent average age. Youngest death (with an X) is 30 years old from Feb 1st. Notice the cluster of young ages in June on the right. yellow = hosp.
    5 replies 16 retweets 75 likes
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  5. 13 hours ago

    Be interested to see total reported COVID deaths per million population in these same locations. Can you calculate it?

    Replying to @MLevitt_NP2013
    Here is a graph of deaths/day/million population for NYC, USA, California, Texas and the Bay Area. Notice the convergence for all but the Bay Area. My guess is NYC is saturated, US is close, Texas/California are becoming and Bay Area is far from it.
    18 replies 20 retweets 83 likes
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  6. 16 hours ago

    Seems to have a grain of truth as latest cases in warmer climes causing less death. Could this be the time when smart governments open up to get to saturation infection with LOWEST EXCESS death? Saturation depends on county but seems close to the 20% already achieved in Europe.

    Crazy idea based on “2nd wave” New Deaths over 5 days divided by New Cases over same 5 days. The ratio is tiny (<1%) in Dallas & Harris TX & even lower in Israel. Could COVID be infectious in summer but with a much lower lethality? Are we now becoming immune with much less death?
    51 replies 87 retweets 317 likes
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  7. 19 hours ago

    Wish I knew. I am sure we can now act more normally. Big events may be fine but suggest we start small. Danger may depends# on waiting in line, cheering, singing, etc.

    Replying to @MLevitt_NP2013
    Professor - what is distinction between saturation, burnout and herd immunity? Is the 20% (saturation, burnout or herd immunity) ceiling only a ceiling if social distancing continues perhaps even indefinitely? In other words if we get to 20% can we go to basketball games?
    6 replies 10 retweets 72 likes
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  8. 19 hours ago

    Taking a stand and sticking to it is a bad idea: it cuts one off from future data & the ability to make mid-course corrections. Too rigid. Nature’s basic driving force, thermodynamics, maximizes “entropy”. Means more flexibility & diversity but so confusingly called “disorder”.

    Replying to @ansgarjohn @thereal_truther and 13 others
    Perlmutter describes the real plandemic talking about frozen moments of science in relation to politics; policymakers devised a response early on, wouldnt take in new info&or adapt. Then seems opportunistic people took advantage;alot of planning just not the way c theorists think
    9 replies 33 retweets 142 likes
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  9. 20 hours ago

    I worry about New Zealand & Australia. Both were so happy to have stopped COVID19 but now are far from saturation. Catching up in their winter could cost extra lives. Being hermetically sealed possible for geographically isolated NZ but at a growing economic & social cost. Sorry!

    Replying to @thereal_truther @MarioGonnet and 11 others
    Actually, there is a point to be made about versus imho. went to 0. Without a lockdown and with foreign travel that would probably not be the case? Good in the minds of intelligent people like ->
    67 replies 117 retweets 505 likes
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  10. Jul 10

    The method has two part: 1) make many predictions (blue dots) & 2) select the right one(brown squares). Step 2) can be done in many ways and we are experimenting. Likely a better way and trying hard to find it. The richness of the science is astounding; fatigue is limiting

    Replying to @HRenkel @MLevitt_NP2013
    2 ... thats almost exactly where theres a split in your 'all predicted' points but not 'selected'. Does that mean your formulas are representing that change in case counting & then for 'selected' its compensating for it?
    6 replies 7 retweets 45 likes
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  11. Jul 10

    Europe got to 500 excess deaths in the COVID-19 season. Enough to reach saturation and there have been no added excess deaths for 6 weeks. The excess deaths in the US are still unclear and may be less evenly spread than in Europe. Not sure yet when US saturation will occur.

    Replying to @youyanggu @AlexBerenson
    I think there are too many variables between the US and EU to simply throw up a chart comparing and conclude the difference is due to policy. has shown the virus follows a specific pattern, regardless of policy.
    22 replies 67 retweets 220 likes
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  12. Jul 10

    My feeling is you are right. I really try to imagine flu monitored with PCR and intensive testing. I am really interested in what we know about summer flu. Deaths and hospitalization are lower than winter. What about the number of flu infections in the summer?

    Replying to @gummibear737 @MLevitt_NP2013
    Here's what I'd love to know. Honest, non-troll question, I swear it. We hear of ppl who test positive to SARS2 virus - with NO symptoms. None, nada, zilch. Does anyone test positive to flu virus with NO symptoms? No, because we don't test them, amirite?
    34 replies 73 retweets 292 likes
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  13. Jul 9

    Never against lockdown per se. Need open-minded cost/benefit analysis. With it’s economic & social costs, lockdown must have much greater benefits in terms of saving lives and stopping ICU collapse. It’s a blunt tool: unlike social distancing, we cannot vary lockdown gradually

    Replying to @TankGothic @MIG0S_ATL @RealCandaceO
    Givning you points for not trying to make cheap political points now as much as noting the diversity of opinions. There will be no limitation on the concerns for it by case and points of lockdown. Professor Michael Levitt will offer other side and openmindness
    38 replies 62 retweets 260 likes
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  14. Jul 8

    Not cheeky, good timing. I agree than an explanation of our new method is overdue. Will do it soon as it will also help us revise the pre-print to make it less technical. This graph made two days ago really says it all but it needs proper explanation.

    22 replies 30 retweets 186 likes
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  15. Jul 8

    Take a look at our app at . There and hundreds of graphs predicting line outcomes in US by county.

    28 replies 66 retweets 178 likes
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  16. Jul 8

    Gummi Bear, I read this all. Very clear & moves rapidly, summarizing the entire World in a few 100 words. I find myself agreeing with it all. There are added factors such as age profile, health profile, population density & health care quality. What about Central & South America?

    Thanks for reading this far! Sorry it's so long We'll continue to follow the data and see how things evolve
    Show this thread
    19 replies 45 retweets 211 likes
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  17. Jul 7

    Actually, it was a terrific symposium organized by some really nice people in Brazil. The person next to me is from Imperial. We are panelists who presented talks and that was part of a discussion. Do not think I have ever interviewed anyone, not even for a job...

    Replying to @OinkLife @MLevitt_NP2013
    I found it , Levitt was right it was in the Brazil webinar. His part addressing r0 starts at 01:53:00 ( 1 hour 53 minutes ) into the video
    5 replies 9 retweets 41 likes
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  18. Jul 7

    Sorry I misunderstood. I never saw it on YouTube but may be you meant this? Not sure where in the long video, the YT clip is. Try

    This Tweet is unavailable.
    6 replies 3 retweets 14 likes
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  19. Jul 7

    See & Nature Journal agrees: No response from professionals. I ask again: "Could epidemiology as a field be collapsing? Really hope not as we need it more than ever"

    12 replies 40 retweets 103 likes
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  20. Jul 7

    Tend to agree. There could be two explanations for saturation that are not mutually exclusive. (1) Some sort of herd immunity at 20% infected. (2) A large fraction of the most vulnerable who comprise say 1000/million need to die. Key will be to see death rate of new outbreaks?

    Replying to @ReubenR80027912 @MLevitt_NP2013
    How are we disagreeing? Early lockdown containment led to later cases after reopening My point is virus burnout determined by human bahavior I wish it was a fixed numner like 25% but data from Bergamo indicates it can be much higher An aware society reaches burnout w/lower %
    20 replies 36 retweets 121 likes
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  21. Jul 7

    Thanks H. I appreciate your defense but I reslly do thrive on opposition whatever the motives. If you think about it, this is an essential requirement of being original. Lior Pachter and I were at the same school in Pretoria (so was with Lior). I am ~25 yrs older...

    Replying to @fapsid @MLevitt_NP2013 @lpachter
    All data is available to anyone now & also formulas used; lpachter doesnt understand the basic idea of the paper, the math of the paper & cant locate the data provided in the paper so it seems he would have a difficult time even if he did have the code.
    6 replies 6 retweets 81 likes
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