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There is no split in the lower courts over a state's ability to ban abortion at 15 weeks (or earlier). Even conservative judges recognize that Roe and Casey prohibit total bans on abortion before viability. It seems likely that the Supreme Court took this case to change the rule.
The Supreme Court has sat on Dobbs since September 2020. There was clearly a battle behind the scenes between the justices over the decision to take this case. It is an extraordinarily ominous sign for reproductive rights that the anti-abortion faction apparently won out.pic.twitter.com/BsTvoM8F60
Because there is no split in the lower courts, the only plausible reason for the Supreme Court to take up this case is to overturn the rule (set out in Roe and Casey) that states may not enact a total ban on abortions at any point before viability, which Mississippi wants to do.
If the Supreme Court authorizes Mississippi's 15-week abortion ban, it will have to overturn the central holdings of Roe and Casey. By doing so, the court may effectively greenlight total bans on abortion. Reproductive rights advocates have been dreading this day for a long time.
I had expected the conservative justices to put off blockbuster cases until after the midterm elections to deprive Democrats of ammunition for court reform. But nope: SCOTUS is poised to create a constitutional right to concealed carry AND overturn Roe by June 2022.
I had also expected the conservative justices to erode Roe and Casey before overturning them outright—authorize laws that shutter clinics under a bogus pretext, greenlight bans on abortions due to fetal disability, etc. But again, nope: They seem ready to end Roe head-on.
To be clear, the Supreme Court is only poised to overturn Roe because of Amy Coney Barrett. Roberts sided with the liberals in a 5–4 abortion decision last summer (albeit begrudgingly and with qualifications). With Barrett's confirmation, the court flipped against Roe and Casey.
The anti everyone but rich white men faction has the majority. I'm surprised it took this long.
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